Quentin Grimes enters his third season with the New York Knicks. Here is what to expect and some goals for him this year.
Quentin Grimes has been getting a lot of love from New York Knicks fans, and deservedly so. His stellar two-way production as a second-year player gave us a lot of hope for his and the franchise’s foreseeable future. He scored 36 points in the Grimes/Toppin/IQ 107-point extravaganza against the Pacers. I’m sure his bum knee steal against Jimmy Butler in Game 5 birthed 5,000 newborn ‘Quentin’s in Montefiore and NY Presbyterian Hospital. And he’s exceeded all expectations as a #25 pick in 2021, projected by NBAdraft.net to be a Josh Hart-type player. Small world.
Ask just about any fan, and they’ll tell you that Quentin Grimes is the prime breakout candidate amongst the Knicks’ youth. The old heads will proclaim he’s the next coming of Allan Houston. The younger casuals might say Klay Thompson. The bold Knicks fans will tell you verbatim that he’s much better than RJ Barrett. The delusional ones will bet you he’ll average 20 points. Either way, people are excited for Year 3 Grimes.
Grimes played 29.9 minutes per game in 2022-23, a 12.8 minute increase from his rookie season, while starting 66 of his 71 games. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks had a +3.0 net rating with him on the court last season, compared to a -3.3 the previous year. Part of that success was from sharing the floor with Jalen Brunson, but it also reflects individual growth in some crucial areas.
What did we see from Year 2 Quentin Grimes? What can we expect from him in 2023-24? And what might derail his linear progression? All that and more, next:
“Quentin”-essential Shooting and Defense
The development of other skills will be the icing on the cake. Grimes’ bread and butter is his ability to lock up elite scorers on one end and shoot from distance on the other. His strengths complement a Knicks lineup that needs every bit of spacing and point-of-attack defense.
The chart below (via BBall Index) portrays how much Thibs relies on him to guard superstars every night and why he’s one of the best in the league at this responsibility. No need to look too hard to find Grimes—he’s in the top right where you’d expect.
Per the NBA, Benedict Mathurin, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, Trae Young, and Bradley Beal were his most frequent defensive matchups by minutes guarding. The seven-inch height difference between Trae and Tatum exemplifies the defensive versatility that allows Grimes to defend an array of playstyles at multiple positions.
On offense, Grimes ranks among the league’s best young snipers. Per NBA University, he hit 97 threes from the left corner at a .485 percent clip last season. Post All-Star break, he shot .450 percent from three on 6.9 attempts per game, bringing his season averages to .386 percent on 5.7 attempts.
Per Stathead (paywall), only six players last season matched or exceeded his three-point percentage and true shooting percentage (.619) with similar three-point volume: Lauri Markkanen, Stephen Curry, Tyrese Haliburton, Trey Murphy III, Michael Porter Jr, and Bojan Bogdanovic. If you’re more of an eye test guy, just one look at the high release point of his jumper will tell you all you need to know. The shooting should only get better from here, especially when he’s practicing off-ball movement with career .415 percent shooter J. J. Redick.
Between higher usage, average-at-best defenders, Grimes and Mitchell Robinson are the ideal role players, backboning the Knicks’ defense and converting at a high rate in occasional offensive opportunities. The 2023 playoff shooting splits for Grimes (.304/.243/.818) were abysmal. Still, I’d argue his injury, youth, and overall team unpreparedness are more than enough of a reason to not limit his ceiling yet. It’s not like the seasoned veterans, outside of Brunson, performed much better, either.
The Flashes
Let’s not forget how easy the game looks for Quentin Grimes when he plays competition around his age. The 2022 Summer League provided some fun highlights, and Grimes’ display during the 2023 Rising Stars tournament shouldn’t be forgotten, either.
Albeit, these are exhibition-type games. But the confidence is there, and the goal is to translate this style of play to the games that matter.
His regular season usage actually dipped from 15.1 percent to 14.4 percent—another Brunson downside, I suppose—but within the limited opportunity, Grimes diversified his shot diet from his rookie season, taking more per game from two-point range (1.0 to 2.7) and converting more of those shots as well (.500 to .641). He also upped his free throw percentage (.684 to .796) while taking one more shot from the line (0.4 to 1.4).
Sure, the improvement is only incremental, but he is willing to adapt and grow within his defined role. For instance, Grimes’ most significant improvement was using his blazing first step to attack opponents closing out on his jumper, and making snappy decisions to find the best shot.
The Logjam
It’s no secret what could potentially stand in the way of a Quentin Grimes breakout season. The Knicks added Donte DiVincenzo to an off-guard/wing core of Grimes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Josh Hart. There are 96 minutes available at the 2 and 3 positions—that’s an average of 19.2 minutes spread evenly amongst those five players. Quickley and Hart will likely see 12 minutes at the 1 and 4, respectively. Otherwise, the fight is on for Thibs’ trust in-between.
While the starting spot is his to lose, Grimes must reaffirm his 3&D-ness to close games. He’s the most versatile defender of the bunch and projects to be the best shooter, too. But the competition is solid. DiVincenzo brings a skillset that overlaps Grimes’ well, and Quickley and Hart are also strong defensively. Barrett provides valuable rim pressure that none of the others can replicate. If Grimes doesn’t perform, or Thibs needs more secondary ball-handling, that could spell trouble.
By December, Thibs may favor the Villanova chemistry with Brunson over the homegrown talent. This is not my final prediction, but get your pitchforks ready either way.
The Trade Dilemma
And then there’s this: The Knicks have been active during three consecutive trade deadlines. Given their depth, RJ Barrett’s contract extension, and the anticipation of Immanuel Quickley’s, Grimes becomes the perfect candidate for a Knick to be moved in a package for a big next piece should a great player become available.
It’s likely that the Knicks will continue to monitor trade targets Donovan Mitchell, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns. I wouldn’t count out Mikal Bridges, Zach LaVine, or Paul George, either. Patience may wane if the continuity underwhelms. And every team will start negotiations with Grimes on their wishlist.
Will the first few months be his audition for the rest of the league? It’s hard to say, but no matter what, we’ll want to see a new and improved Quentin Grimes show why the offseason hype was no exaggeration.
Expectations for Year 3
We did a similar comparison graphic with RJ Barrett last year. Little did I know Brunson would turn into a top-five point guard and throw a wrench in the Knicks’ plans in the best way possible. This time, we’ll temper expectations and consider both productivity and role.
Based on two-way ability and upside, these three players—all sensible trade targets, ironically—offer insight into what a Year 3 jump could look like for a young wing already tasked with important defensive responsibilities.
Why make a trade when you could have what you need in-house? Unless, of course, you want two of them.
To be clear, I don’t expect Grimes to jump onto the national stage like Paul George did in 2012-13, the year he dunked on Birdman and crushed New York’s heart in the prior round. But George’s trajectory illustrates a very best-case scenario for what Grimes could be. That kind of season would be the definition of a breakout year, but it would also require a significant uptick in shot attempts, which is unlikely.
You could throw other players into the mix here: Jaylen Brown, Klay Thompson, and even Allan Houston significantly jumped from 14.5 points per game to 19.7 in his junior year. But I wanted to emphasize modern-day players whose primary roles are to be the best perimeter defenders for their team. That’s the most important way for Grimes to overcome the logjam. The defense cannot fall off.
Otherwise, my main goal for Quentin Grimes this season is this: Be more aggressive on offense. As we saw in the first preseason game, opportunities with the bench unit will allow him to discover what he can do and which matchups he can take off the dribble. If Thibs staggers DiVincenzo with the starting unit, so be it. Grimes can expand his game next to Quickley and Isaiah Hartenstein. In 355 minutes, that three-man lineup had a net rating of 11.0 and a true shooting of .602 percent last season. The secondary unit clicks well, and if Jericho Sims does run a lot of power forward, Grimes will have no choice but to make something out of nothing on offense more often.
With the starting unit, I’d like to see a bit more involvement on offense by way of dribble handoffs, specifically. Per the NBA, Grimes ran just 0.5 DHOs per game last season but had a remarkable 1.28 points per possession. The sample size is small, but why not get a Grimes-Randle two-man game going during offensive lulls? Even through the Evan Fournier drama, you have to admire his confidence in putting up shots and staying agrresive. Hopefully, Grimes can adopt a similar mindset.
Shot distribution won’t change drastically, but a few more per game (2.0-2.5) would go a long way. 14.5 points should be the goal.
I’m not too worried about his rebounding—there are plenty of board chasers already, and someone has to get back on defense. As for assists, an uptick by just 1.0 would reflect more aggressiveness and executed playmaking. So let’s make 3.0 assists the magic number.
The fact that Grimes hasn’t shot .400 percent from three in a season yet doesn’t concern me, but it does stand out, even with the second-half hot streak. More diversity on the shotchart would mean more high-percentage two-pointers, whether midrange or at the rim. Bridges and Anunoby took major steps in efficiency. Grimes should, too. Let’s make .500 percent from the field and .400 percent from three the new benchmarks.
I imagine the low free throw rate and subpar free throw percentage are the results of inconsistent rhythm on offense. Regardless, Grimes is too crafty, and his touch is too good for those numbers to stagnate. 2.0 free throw attempts per game with an .800 percent success rate feels like the right next step.
I don’t want to anoint Quentin Grimes as the official third option yet. In whichever order, Brunson and Randle are the sure-fire #1 and #2. Quickley and Barrett are on the next tier, though both may also be auditioning for their exits, and the latter could afford to take fewer shots for the sake of his efficiency. Nonetheless, the third option should be “By Committee,” reliant on ball movement and riding the hot hand once the ball-stoppers sub out.
For Grimes, that means being less timid and using that same sense of urgency he has to pass the ball to make a move. He differs often, almost to a fault. I think he can afford to try out the on-ball skills he works on in the offseason. This rendition of the Knicks’ offense isn’t creative enough to get him going off pin-downs and flare screens, anyway.
I’m speculating here, but if Grimes were on any young developing team, we’d see his growing pains pay dividends for development. As a member of a competitive (dare I say contending?) team, he won’t have the long leash young players typically do. Still, if the cream rises to the top, then he’ll have to prove he’s an irreplaceable franchise building block as trade rumors loom for the foreseeable future.
For now, he’s an elite role player who fits New York in more ways than one. And that’s why my verdict, at this point, is to #KeepGrimes.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP and The Athletic’s Fred Katz breaking down the Knicks training camp.
