The New York Knicks enter the final stretch of the 2022-23 NBA season. So the KFTV writers got together to discuss their expectations.
Coming out of the All-Star break, the Knicks find themselves with a record of 33-27 and in sole possession of sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Ending the first half with a flourish, they will look to build on this momentum to secure a playoff appearance and test their growth. While this stretch will answer many questions about this team, the KFTV writers’ are here to give their predictions for the second half as basketball returns from the break.
1. What is your biggest concern for the Knicks’ in the final 22 games + postseason?
Jalen: Health is always a concern. Aside from that, the offense has the tendency to stagnate and lull. And if Josh Hart cools off, they could be back to struggling when Brunson and Randle aren’t on the court. And as good as they’ve been, they sometimes have difficulty moving the ball around. The Knicks are tied for last in assists per game with 22.4 (with the Dallas Mavericks). So the offense could begin to slump at any point.
Max: Regaining their defensive identity. In the 23 games between the switch to a nine-man rotation and Mitchell Robinson’s thumb injury, the Knicks had the third-best defensive rating in the league. However, in the last 14 games without Mitch, the Knicks have been the 24th-ranked defense. The Knicks’ defense should improve when Robinson returns to the lineup soon. But if it takes some time for him to get back into game shape and gel with the starters again, then the Knicks won’t have much time to get their defense into playoff form.
Remi: Everything looks lovely at the moment because Tom Thibodeau finally has a rotation of players he trusts. So, my biggest concern is that those players stay healthy. The Knicks looked like they finally figured out how to close games before the All-Star Break, but I think that was a matter of the starters getting extra time to rest before they entered fourth quarters. An injury or two could cause setbacks and force a handful of players to play extended minutes, leaving them clinging to leads and fading late.
Luke: If RJ Barrett doesn’t bounce back. Short term, it could hurt the team’s defense and three-point shooting. Long term, the contract could start to look like a horrible miscue. And if that happens, I dread hearing we could have traded this guy for Donovan Mitchell! However, I believe in RJ and that he will bounce back well. Other than that, I’m worried that Josh Hart may not be the floor spacer the team needs or that Quentin Grimes will continue to slump.
Alex: My biggest concern for the Knicks in the final 22 games is for them to hit a cold streak. Momentum is a big thing in sports; catching fire at the right time is essential. I’m a New York Jets fan, but for all you New York Giants fans out there, you know exactly what I am talking about. The only difference is that I am not expecting this team to win a chip. But if they get into a rhythm in the season’s final stretch, they could be a tough out in the playoffs (maybe even make it to the second round).
Mike: Someway, somehow, I expect the Knicks to find their way into the postseason. For that reason, my biggest concern is how this roster will respond to postseason basketball. Teams will put size and pressure on Jalen Brunson, which he will have to face for the first time in this role. Then, the focus on Brunson will force Randle to step up and prove that he has grown from his first playoff appearance. On top of that, which RJ Barrett will show up, and what coach can we say Thibs can outcoach? These are my concerns because I still have nightmares after the 2021 playoff series between the Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks, where the stage looked too big for the Knicks (both the players and coaches). Hopefully, we get good results this postseason to answer my questions.
2. Where will the Knicks finish in the Eastern Conference standings?
Jalen: I’m pretty confident in the Knicks as a good regular season team, so I think they’ll finish as the 5th seed. They can be better than the Miami Heat, and the Brooklyn Nets, without Kevin Durant, should fall enough for New York to catch up. But worst case scenario, they should still avoid the play-in.
Max: 6th seed. The Knicks have three massive games remaining against Miami, and winning just one of them would tie the season series at worst. Miami hasn’t played well against the Eastern Conference this season (15-17), so I think the Knicks would win that tiebreaker if it comes down to it (and New York will win enough games to hold off the Heat). Although the Knicks are better than the current version of the Nets, Brooklyn enters the home stretch with a three-game advantage in the loss column. The Knicks only have one more game against Brooklyn to gain ground. Tiebreaker scenarios could go either way, so the Knicks may have to win more games outright than the Nets with a tough schedule ahead. It’ll be a race to the finish line.
Remi: I’ve got high hopes for New York to finish with the fifth seed. The Nets will continue to fade, which leaves the Knicks and Miami chasing fifth. Tankathon lists New York as having the 10th most challenging remaining strength of schedule, but Miami is in front of them at 9th. More importantly, the rival squads have three games against each other left. The Knicks can lock their position up by winning those games.
Luke: They will take the fifth seed. If New York can keep up the level of play they went into the All-Star Break with, then I have no doubt they can get past the Brooklyn Swamp Dragons and the Miami Heat. I had deja vu watching the Nets game, seeing a talented, hard-working group lose in crunch time due to a lack of a closer. Miami just seems like they are tired and ready to sip margaritas on the beach.
Alex: The Knicks will finish fifth in the Eastern Conference. The Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, and Miami Heat all have tougher remaining schedule strength than the Knicks. And watching how the Knicks competed when they had the most challenging schedule at one point of the season gives me optimism that New York can finish stronger than these teams. As for the Washington Wizards, they’re so inconsistent that I don’t expect them to make much movement in the standings.
Mike: I believe the Knicks will finish sixth in the Eastern Conference. They have three games remaining against a Heat team that is right behind them in the standings and always gives them trouble. I believe the Nets will fall into the play-in, and the top four teams will remain the same, though their order may shift.
3. Will the Knicks win a playoff series?
Jalen: I don’t think they can beat the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks in a series. But I think a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers or Cleveland Cavaliers would be interesting. Honestly, I’d pick New York over Cleveland right now. But if they faced Philly in the first round, I think Embiid and Harden’s star power would be too much for them. They should be able to beat every other matchup in the playoff picture, though.
Max: Anything is possible, but I’d say no if I had to put my money on it. Boston, Milwaukee, and Philly each have a Top 5 MVP candidate in addition to All-Star sidekicks, and star power usually prevails in a first-round series. If the Knicks face Cleveland, I think it’d be a competitive series. However, the Cavs’ top-ranked defense would limit the Knicks’ isolation-heavy offense, and the twin towers of Mobley and Allen would slow down New York’s offensive rebounding prowess.
Remi: I’ll cop out and say that it depends on the opponent. I like how New York matches up with Cleveland, and I think they can win that series with Brunson leading the way. On the other hand, Philadelphia would be a challenging opponent, thanks to Embiid and Harden’s playoff experience and talent. And if the Bucks slip with Giannis missing time, there’s a slight chance that New York faces the uphill battle of a Bucks matchup. But we’ll worry about that if it actually comes to fruition.
Luke: First-round exit. With the Knicks, I learned it’s better to hope for the best but to expect very little. I’m flapping my wings, ready to jump out the window but holding myself back. It’s certainly possible if they match up with the Cleveland Cavaliers. We saw Jalen Brunson cook a Donovan Mitchell-led team last year in the playoffs, and we currently lead the season series against them this year. Still, Donovan Mitchell at MSG in the playoffs sounds like a cardiac combination.
Alex: This is tough to answer because it is based on the opponent. If the Knicks get the Cleveland Cavaliers, there is a good chance they could make it to the second round. However, if the Knicks get the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, or Philadelphia 76ers, there is a greater chance the Knicks don’t win a series (even though there is a chance for the Knicks to takedown Philly).
Mike: No. I could be a pessimist, but I feel the Knicks will be out-talented against any team they face in the postseason. I am not confident that Thibs can make the necessary matchups to win a playoff game, let alone four. Their best chance would be a matchup with the Cavaliers, who are more talented than the Knicks but are unproven in the playoffs besides Spida.
4. If the Knicks make the playoffs, which player will be the x-factor?
Jalen: RJ Barrett. He’s officially third in the pecking order on offense, and his struggles on both ends have been, at moments, really brutal to watch. That being said, we’ve seen what a sharpshooting, slashing, and defending RJ can look like. If he can be efficient and choose his spots a little more wisely, he could swing a series in the Knicks’ favor.
Max: RJ Barrett. It’s been an up-and-down season for RJ: he started the season ice-cold in October-November, then stepped up to shoot 46 percent from the field and 40 percent from three-point land in December-January. However, so far in February, his efficiency has plummeted to 39 percent from the field and 22 percent from three in the seven most recent games. The rest of the Knicks’ rotation should be able to play their roles consistently, but if RJ is clicking offensively, then the Knicks would be a tough out in a playoff series.
Remi: I know the easy answer is Jalen Brunson, especially after his work in Utah last postseason. But I’m going with Randle because he can’t afford to have a series as he did against the Hawks two years ago. Even if Brunson plays his best basketball, he’ll need help to beat a top-four team. That help starts with Randle.
Luke: If the Knicks can make it to the second round, it will be due to the ascension of RJ Barrett. It would be a beautiful story to behold if he can break out and announce to the league that he is here and ready to make his mark. We’ll need Immanuel Quickley’s scoring punch, court vision, and defensive masterminding. If Josh Hart can knock down his threes, he could also play a huge role.
Alex: The x-factor will be Quentin Grimes. Grimes has been in a shooting slump recently, but he needs to knock down the three-ball if the Knicks are going to have a shot at competing in the playoffs. If he can help create the spacing for the starters, then Brunson, Randle, and Barrett to attack the paint.
Mike: It has to be RJ Barrett. Simply put, he has not lived up to the expectations of his fourth season and the contract he received in the offseason. However, the narrative can quickly shift with a solid finish to the season, which we’ve seen from RJ before. It also does not feel hyperbolic to say that this stretch could be pivotal to his future with the Knicks. I am a big RJ fan, but he has to take more good shots, find a rhythm from deep, and be better on the defensive end. With Hart in the mix, IQ playing well, and Grimes defending at a high level, RJ could see his minutes shrink if his play does not improve consistently.
5. What has to occur for this season to be a success?
Jalen: A competitive first-round playoff series, regardless of a win or loss, would make the season a success. Teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Philly, and Cleveland should be better than them, but they should be at the top of the tier right below. Regardless of what they do in the offseason, a competitive series would be a step in the right direction.
Max: Make the playoffs, and this does not include getting eliminated in the play-in tournament. The Knicks need at least to play a first-round series for this season to be a success.
Remi: A trip to the second round would make this season an undeniable success. Anything less would leave New York with many questions, especially on players to extend or move on from.
Luke: If they win a playoff series. A playoff appearance is good, but calling a first-round exit a “success” doesn’t sit right with me, especially since that was where the team peaked two years ago. Though, a competitive first-round exit is significantly better than getting washed by the Hawks.
Alex: The Knicks need to make the playoffs and, at minimum, have a seven-game series. No gentleman sweep.
Mike: New York needs to win a playoff series, especially after how the last playoff appearance unfolded. Participating is not enough. They won a playoff game with a significantly less talented roster two seasons ago, and it is time to show real growth. Obviously, the tenor of this statement changes based on the competitiveness of the matchup and who the matchup is, but this is where I stand currently.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP’s interview with David Biral, one of music’s hottest producers!
