The New York Knicks have exceeded expectations since Mitchell Robinson’s injury. But New York needs Mitch back to close the season strong.
On January 19th, news emerged that the New York Knicks wouldn’t have Mitchell Robinson for at least three weeks because of a fractured thumb. When Knicks fans got the notification, they prepared for a tough stretch without the man in the middle. Until then, the Knicks got inconsistent play from Isaiah Hartenstein and the relatively inexperienced Jericho Sims. So to imagine 48 minutes without Mitch as New York was competing for a playoff position was a reasonable concern amongst the fanbase.
For you see, Mitchell Robinson is not just the defensive anchor for the Knicks. But he’s also in the elite tier of NBA big men in offensive rebounding, a crucial part of New York’s offensive success this season.
The Knicks are close to 9 points per 100 possessions better when Mitchell Robinson is on the floor than when he’s off, ranking him a close second to Immanuel Quickley in on/off differential on the team. The team’s offense and defense are significantly more efficient with Robinson on the court, making him one of the most impactful two-way players on the Knicks this season.
Now let’s put this all into perspective. New York sat at 25-21 before playing their first game with Robinson sidelined. And at that point, the Knicks were competing to secure a playoff spot. Then, New York got the news they don’t have one of their most impactful two-way players while looking down the barrel of one of the toughest schedules in the league over the next few weeks. So, of course, the immediate reaction was, can we at least be a .500 team by the All-Star break?
Well, the Knicks did something better than that. The team went 8-6 without Mitchell Robinson and had a handful of “best win of the season” candidates during Robinson’s absence. And to make matters sweeter, the Knicks hold sole possession of the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference while heading into the final 22 games of the season.
So how exactly have the Knicks succeeded without one of their most important pieces?
Isaiah Hartenstein Steps Up in Mitchell Robinson’s absence
First off, let’s give credit where credit is due. Isaiah Hartenstein has flipped the switch over the last month and has played admirably through half of the Knicks’ center minutes. He’s vastly improved his scoring efficiency on shots within 10 feet of the rim and his defensive rebounding. Both areas of his game often frustrated Knicks fans before this 14-game stretch (see image below).
Since Mitchell Robinson’s injury, Hartenstein has been shooting 70 percent on shots within 10 feet of the basket, compared to a subpar 55 percent before this stretch of games. And while Hartenstein isn’t scoring a large share of the Knicks’ points, his shooting improvement is necessary for a bench unit that has been inept at times on the offensive end this season.
Regarding Hartenstein’s defensive rebounding over these past 14 games, he has averaged a 43.1 contested defensive rebounding percentage, which ranks second in the NBA among the top 30 centers in defensive rebound chances. Prior to this stretch, Isaiah had just a 34 percent success rate in these opportunities, placing him in the middle of the pack among the top centers in defensive rebound chances.
Hartenstein’s leap in defensive rebounding, combined with an already elite offensive rebounding prowess (93rd percentile among bigs), has made him indispensable in Mitch’s absence. It’s not far-fetched to say that the Knicks wouldn’t be in this position had he not stepped up.
The Bench Mob
Isaiah Hartenstein is only one part of a Knicks bench unit that has been one of the best in the league over the last month. In the team’s previous 14 games, the second unit has been the NBA’s fourth-best in offensive rating and second in overall net rating (see image below), improving its net rating by more than three points per 100 possessions compared to before Robinson’s injury.
In addition to the improved shooting efficiency of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Knicks’ bench has caught fire from three-point range in the last 14 games: Immanuel Quickley (43.5 percent) has shot the ball exceptionally well from deep, and Obi Toppin (36.4 percent) and Deuce McBride (37.5 percent) have been trending upward after falling under a three-point cold spell for long stretches before then (NBA.com Stats).
And although he’s only played in three of these pivotal 14 games of the season, Josh Hart’s addition to this team cannot be overlooked when talking about an improved Knicks bench unit. The Knicks have outscored opponents by 41 points in the 78 minutes that Josh Hart has stepped foot on the floor, with the Knicks’ newest wing performing as advertised for his ability to rebound the ball (98th percentile in defensive rebounding) and thrive in transition.
The revamped second unit with Hart, Quickley, and Hartenstein leading the way brings an unrelenting level of energy and effort that can help New York solidify a spot in the postseason.
All-Stars leading the way without Mitchell Robinson
Whether the record book states it or not, the Knicks have two All-Stars this season: Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson.
Randle has continued his superb play during Mitch’s absence with a stat line of 26.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 34 percent from three. The only other NBA player putting up at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists in this timespan is Giannis Antetokounmpo; if that’s not elite company for Julius Randle, then I’m not sure what is.
The Knicks’ unofficial but more-than-deserving second All-Star is Jalen Brunson. He won’t admit to taking the All-Star Game snub personally, but he’s surely played like it.
Brunson has averaged 28.4 points per game on a ridiculously efficient 53.3 percent from the field and 44.8 percent from three. He has simply been one of the best guards in the NBA for the last month. And if we date back to the start of 2023, Brunson has averaged 29.7 points per game on 51.5 percent from the field and 46.6 percent from three. By those numbers, Brunson is the only NBA player with this level of scoring average and efficiency from all over the court (unless you count Kevin Durant, who’s played in four games).
So it’s no longer a conversation of whether Jalen Brunson has outplayed his contract. Instead, we must shift the discussion to where he ranks among the elite NBA point guards.
Perhaps the most encouraging part about the Knicks’ dynamic offensive duo is that they’ve been able to shine without hurting the Knicks’ late-game offense. The fourth quarter offense has been a significant concern for Knicks fans this season, but the numbers point to improvement.
In the last 14 games, the Knicks are second in fourth quarter offensive rating. In comparison, during the 23 games from the change to the nine-man rotation to Mitchell Robinson’s injury, New York ranked 25th in fourth quarter offensive rating. So maybe the Knicks are on to something.
Looking ahead when Mitchell Robinson returns
The Knicks have played an impressive stretch of games without Mitchell Robinson against a relatively demanding schedule. But they will need Mitch back in the lineup as soon as possible. Thankfully, it seems like Mitch is anotehr step closer to making his return.
Most of New York’s success without their starting big man has been on the offensive end; the team ranks 24th in the NBA with a 118.6 defensive rating during this stretch, a level that cannot continue if New York wants to be competitive in a playoff series.
The Knicks’ most played lineups featuring Jericho Sims in the last 14 games have been unbalanced. The starting five has played well offensively, with a 116.2 offensive rating, but has been abysmal on the defensive end (126.6 defensive rating). In contrast, when Immanuel Quickley is substituted for RJ Barrett, the defense with Sims in the lineup improves (111.9 defensive rating), but the offense takes a steep drop (99.2 offensive rating).
Jericho Sims has potential as a rotational big man in the NBA. However, Mitchell Robinson is essential to establish a solid two-way lineup for the Knicks as they enter the home stretch of the regular season.
Hopefully, Robinson can return to pre-injury form, and the Knicks will hit their peak at the right time. If both of those things occur, New York will be a team that no one wants to face in the first round of the playoffs.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP’s interview with David Biral, one of music’s hottest producers!
