The New York Knicks are on a three-game skid and face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. Will Tom Thibodeau make a lineup change?
The New York Knicks face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, and we’re hoping that the Knicks can bounce back after an abysmal loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Tonight will be New York’s fourth game where they’re facing a contender. Luckily for the Knicks, James Harden is out tonight (he is sidelined for a month), and the Sixers may not have Joel Embiid.
For the past three games, New York’s perimeter defense has been weak. The main reason for the Knicks’ struggles on the perimeter is that Jalen Brunson does not have the height or length to be a defensive force, and Evan Fournier is a turnstile on defense. According to NBA Stats, the lineup of Jalen Brunson, Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Julius Randall, and Mitchell Robinson has a net rating of -9.2 and a defensive rating of 116.9 within 110 minutes – one of only six lineups in the NBA to have already accumulated over 100 minutes together. And if you want to include the lineup where Hartenstein is the only difference, their net rating is -11.9 with a defensive rating of 142.2 – this lineup has only played 32 minutes together.
Unfortunately, the Knicks don’t face teams like the Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets on a nightly basis. So, for them to keep up with the challenging Eastern Conference, it makes sense that Tom Thibodeau makes a rotation change sooner rather than later.
As tweeted by Jonathan Macri, Tom Thibodeau may consider a rotation change tonight, and rightfully so.
Which players could enter the rotation? It must be Immanuel Quickley or Quinten Grimes for Evan Fournier.
Some joke that it could be Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting rotation over Mitchell Robinson. That type of lineup change would go against Tom Thibodeau’s defensive belief, which is having rim protection. Although Mitchell Robinson has struggled to stay out of foul trouble, replacing him with Isaiah Hartenstein would only exacerbate the Knicks’ defensive woes, as I already pointed out.
So with that being said, is it Quentin Grimes or Immanuel Quickley?
Through the first couple of games, we’ve seen Quickley struggle to find his shot. However, he has provided solid defense, playmaking, and rebounding. For all those reasons, Quickley would be an upgrade over Fournier in the starting rotation while Grimes still works his way back from injury.
However, the concern is that by removing IQ from the bench squad, Thibs then removes the secondary (and sometimes primary) ball handler. And through the first seven games, we’ve seen Quickley is critical for that unit considering Derrick Rose hasn’t played extensive minutes since he is coming off a season-ending ankle injury that required surgery earlier this year. On top of that, New York loses the IQ and Obi Toppin connection.
The counter to that thought is that Fournier does provide scoring and playmaking since that is what he did while he was one of the top options with Orlando. But rhythm is a crucial aspect of any sport and should not be taken lightly.
So then, what about Grimes?
As of now, Grimes is a 3&D player. He does not need to be on-ball a lot to be productive and the Knicks don’t need him to be a playmaker (yet). We all saw that when he entered the starting rotation against the Milwaukee Bucks last season and dropped 27 points and shot 52.9 percent from the field (December 12, 2021) playing off-ball a majority of the time. According to NBA stats, Quentin Grimes averaged a 41.7 field goal percentage, 41.2 three-point percentage, and 61.9 effective field goal percentage through 46 games when it came to catch and shoot. On top of that, Grimes had a 14.3 percent usage rate last season (ranked in the 37th percentile amongst wings).
I should note that Fournier was not too far behind in these catch and shoot categories last season. He averaged a 40.1 field goal percentage, 39.9 three-point percentage, and 59.3 effective field goal percentage. But the biggest difference is that Fournier needs to be more on-ball to get into a rhythm, unlike Grimes. And maybe if Fournier plays with the second unit, that would allow him to use the playmaking skills that he demonstrated on the Magic – he may get into a better offensive rhythm if he played with the second unit.
Grimes makes the most sense to enter the starting rotation since he is the best perimeter defender on this team, a solid three-point shooter, and a strong rebounder. However, he hasn’t had enough repetitions. After all, he is returning from a foot injury, which may be problematic because he has not had enough repetitions with the starters to get into a rhythm, and tonight would be his first complete game action if he gets the nod. And while those are all fair concerns, that may be a risk Thibs is willing to take.
Now I know what some of you are thinking: what happens to Cam Reddish if there is a lineup change tonight or in the future? I expect him to go back to the bench and for Fournier to take his role as the small forward once Grimes is fully back in the rotation. Here are the reasons why:
- The Knicks still have $18 million invested in Fournier this season and $18.9 next season (the fourth and final year of Evan’s contract is non-guaranteed).
- While Cam has shown his tantalizing skill set, he has been inconsistent offensively and has shown to make poor shot selections that are maddening.
- Thibodeau was not a fan of the Reddish trade last season.
- Thibodeau still has an affinity for NBA veterans.
It’ll be interesting to see if Tom Thibodeau does make a lineup change tonight. Signs are pointing that he should because he needs to make the play-in to secure his job for another season, especially if this is the roster for the remainder of the season.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out Knicks Weekly, where CP, Alex, and JD discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly from the previous week!
