The New York Knicks will face the Cleveland Cavaliers this Saturday. But there are three concerns Tom Thibodeau will have to address.
Tom Thibodeau has helped the New York Knicks put together an impressive sample size of good basketball during the regular season. The orange and blue enter the playoffs with the fourth-best offense and the 19th-best defense ahead of a matchup with the Cavs, who boast the league’s top-rated defense. Both teams have All-Star talent and depth. Ultimately, the victor will be determined by the players on the court. However, coach Tom Thibodeau’s rotations and defensive strategy will also have a significant impact.
1. Julius Randle’s injury
Earlier this week, fans received some encouraging news regarding All-Star forward Julius Randle’s ankle injury.
Per SNY’s Ian Begley, Randle is inching closer to an all-systems go with two days left until game one. If Randle is healthy, the Knicks will be in a fantastic position to pull an upset. However, if Randle, who led the team in both points and rebounds per game, is not the same version of himself, then coach Thibs needs to make some hard decisions.
Obi Toppin started at power forward in the five games the Knicks played without Randle. To his credit, Toppin played well — averaged 21.8 points and shot 44.4 percent from three-point range on 7.2 attempts per game.
Aside from individual production, the ball movement was impressive, with Toppin in the starting lineup. Not only that, but Toppin flashed some remarkable shot creation that some, myself included, wondered if we’d ever see from the former eighth-overall pick.
That being said, take this praise with a grain of salt — three of the Knicks’ final five games featured opposing lineups without multiple key players, and Obi (similar to the end of last season) was able to play without much pressure or fear that making a mistake would get him benched. The playoffs will be an entirely different experience. If coach Thibodeau needs to rely on Obi for extended minutes, he better hope the Knicks are pushing the pace and avoiding a game played mainly in the half-court.
Another thing to mention: The Knicks are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, but this is not one of Obi’s strengths. Couple that with the fact that the Cavs have very long and versatile bigs in both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley — I would bet that replacing Randle’s minutes would require more from Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson, and even Josh Hart (if the Knicks decide to play small). I would not give Obi 30 minutes a game in that situation.
2. Thibodeau managing the Knicks’ Guards/Forward minutes
Take Jalen Brunson out of this conversation. He will play all the minutes – 40 a night if necessary. But aside from Randle’s health, figuring out the right amount of minutes for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Josh Hart will be crucial. Since Hart was traded to the Knicks – the breakdown of minutes per game has looked like this: Barrett (32 mpg), IQ (31.3 mpg), QG (28.4 mpg), and Hart (30 mpg). Compare that to the fourth quarter: Barrett (7.7 mpg), IQ (8.9 mpg), QG (4.6 mpg), and Hart (10.7 mpg), and it’s apparent that Grimes has not seen nearly enough burn in the clutch compared to his teammates.
Grimes went on an absolute tear the last ten games of the season — he averaged 20 points and shot 48.4 percent from three. He also had the toughest defensive assignment each night on the court. Along with Quickley, Grimes has emerged as borderline untouchable (unless you’re talking about a trade for an MVP-caliber player), but he still needs to see the floor more in crunch-time minutes.
The obvious man out in this situation would be Barrett. I love RJ, but his shot selection and lack of defense continue to hurt this team. Averaging 19.6 points on 16.1 shots per game won’t cut it unless he punishes the Cavs by frequently driving to the basket and getting to the free throw line. And sadly, RJ has moments when he falls in love far too much with the three-point line, even if his shot isn’t falling, and can potentially shoot the team out of the game.
Thibs has been loyal to RJ. Granted, at times, Thibodeau has sat Barrett in the 4th quarter or at the end of games when he’s not playing well. Nevertheless, Thibs’ hook must be quick in a series where momentum can shift quickly.
RJ’s minutes should range between 25-30. And of course, keep him out there longer if he’s hot. Unfortunately, there’s just too much that IQ, QG, and Hart offer on both sides of the ball for RJ to play more than any of them.
3. Thibodeau will need to change up the Knicks’ defense
Playing drop coverage repeatedly against Donovan Mitchell is just not it. Smart and incredibly talented shot-makers like Mitchell, Trae Young, and Damian Lillard will figure out how to shoot threes or draw contact as the defender looks to chase them off the perimeter. Also, they’re crafty enough to attack the paint, with the defender on their back, and time the lob pass to the big just out of Mitchell Robinson’s reach.
In some matchups this season, Thibs has been far too hesitant in switching up his coverages, despite one player torching us. It’s possible that the addition of Hart has made him more comfortable making schematic changes. Nevertheless, Spida will need to see the kitchen sink during this series. As KnicksFilmSkool’s Ben Ritholtz highlights in the second clip of this thread – trapping Mitchell, getting the ball out of his hands, and helping off less reliable shooters will be pivotal in limiting his impact.
But it’s not just trapping. Between Quickley, Grimes, and Hart, the Knicks must commit to excellent point-of-attack defense, followed by quick rotations off the pick-and-roll. Thibs has to adjust perfectly when he wants the Knicks to hedge on pick-and-rolls and when he wants them to execute double-teams on either Mitchell or Garland.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out Knicks Weekly where CP, Alex, JD, and John Schmeelk preview the Knicks-Cavaliers playoff series!
