New York Knicks fans should start memorizing these shooting guards with the 2022 NBA Draft around the corner.
My first draft-related piece highlighted the top-three point guards available in the upcoming 2022 draft. This week, I’m focusing on shooting guards, which offers the best chance of landing a franchise-changing player, along with the power forward position.
The Knicks have not drafted a lead scorer since Patrick Ewing in 1987. If this season has taught us anything, it’s that the Knicks are still in the talent-acquisition phase of the rebuilding process. Despite fans feeling underwhelmed with Leon Rose’s second full season in charge, the good news is that his scouting department has uncovered some hidden gems.
Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes have all played significant parts in the rotation, with Grimes being the latest of the “kids” to make an impact. Fans are even high on players like Jericho Sims, Miles McBride, and Rokas Jokubaitis — he has not played a minute in the NBA.
Of course, Toppin was a top-ten pick and a national player of the year coming out of college, but Quickley and Grimes highlight the organization’s ability to strike gold at the back-end of the draft. However, this year’s draft poses a different dilemma. Between now to 2028, the Knicks have 24 draft picks. So does Leon Rose trade up and land a blue-chip prospect who can score on a nightly basis?
3. Jaden Hardy – G, G-League Ignite
Jaden Hardy is a 19-year old, six-foot-four, 198-pound shooting guard with a six-foot-eight wingspan. Hardy was the number two ranked high school player in the country in 2021 and chose to play for G League Ignite after receiving offers from Kentucky and UCLA. Hardy has averaged 18.4 points per game while shooting 37.3 percent from the floor and 28.5 percent from the three-point line. Hardy is also shooting 76.3 percent from the free-throw line, and he’s averaging 4 rebounds per game and 3.5 assists per game.
NBA ready skill:
Hardy’s draft stock has fluctuated this season. Most people still consider him a top-10 pick, but his inefficient shooting numbers, poor shot selection, and high turnover rate have caused him to drop.
It’s easy to see what people like about his game. Hardy is very smooth and has an impressive offensive arsenal. He can shoot off the dribble, hit step-back threes, and he’s more than capable of navigating through multiple defenders on his way to the rim. He’s just a confident scorer who will never shy away from big moments and wants to take the last shot.
Regarding his criticisms, I think it’s important to remember what team he plays for and how the team has utilized his skill set. When discussing Ignite head coach Jason Hart’s philosophy in using Hardy, Box-and-One’s Adam Spinella put it best: “Hart has settled on using Hardy as the most off-ball option of the three. Constant down screens at the elbow (which bring Hardy to the mid-range) or wide pindowns (that Hardy routinely curls to the mid-range) utilize his shot-making on the move, an area far different than his high school usage as a bombs away sniper.” Hardy has had to adjust (since he shares the floor with Dyson Daniels and MarJon Beauchamp), but his skillset and scoring potential are probably best suited as a lead-ball handler in the pick and roll.
From day one in the NBA, Hardy will make tough shots and get to the rim and finish with ease. Furthermore, looking at his free-throw percentage and three-point attempts (6.9 per game), it’s reasonable to believe that Hardy’s three-point percentage will improve. On the flipside, Hardy’s assist-to-turnover ratio is awful. Hardy’s averaging 3.6 turnovers a game, which is more than he’s dishing out. Of course, decision-making and turnovers are everyday struggles for young guards, but this is a significant weakness for the 19-year old.
There’s no reason the Knicks should pass on a talent like Jaden Hardy. The Knicks do not have enough players who can create offense for themselves, and they don’t have a dominant wing-scorer (sorry, RJ Barrett). With that said, with New York’s current roster construction, the fit is murky at best.
The Knicks function best when they run the offense through Julius Randle. Hardy can play off-the-ball, but that’s not his strength. For Hardy to succeed in New York, the Knicks need to select a clear direction for their organization. Either prioritize the development of their young talent or continue to fight for the 12th seed every season.
2. Johnny Davis – G, Wisconsin:
Johnny Davis is a 19-year old, six-foot-five, 196-pound sophomore shooting guard who plays for the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers are the 13th ranked program in the country, and Davis is averaging 20.6 points per game, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. He’s also shooting 44.8 percent from the floor and 33 percent from three-point range on 3.8 attempts per game. The Wisconsin-native is also shooting 77.4 percent from the free-throw line. Davis has improved in every major statistical category since his first year at Wisconsin, except for his three-point percentage.
Davis is unquestionably the most polished offensive player in the draft. Some may believe that Duke’s Paolo Banchero is more polished. However, while Banchero does have the edge in field-goal percentage (46 percent), both players are equal in free-throw percentage (77 percent). On top of that, Davis has made more two-pointers, three-pointers, and gets to the line more often, despite being five inches smaller. Davis is also ranked just outside the top ten in the nation in points per game.
Davis was a three-star recruit out of high school (ranked 166th) in the same recruiting class that featured Cade Cunningham. Fast forward two years, and Davis is a lock to go top-10, and he’s only getting better as the season goes on. Davis had six games from December through early January, where he dropped at least 20 or more points. These performances included wins against top programs like Houston (30 points) and Purdue (37 points). Furthermore, of the six ranked opponents that Wisconsin has faced this season, Davis has only failed to score 20 or more points once.
In regards to advanced statistics, Davis’ box-plus-minus (9.8) ranks higher than both Purdue’s Jaden Ivey (7.8) and Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin (9.0). However, he ranks just below Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji (10.3). Additionally, Davis’ 53 true shooting percentage ranks below Ivey (58.3 percent), Mathurin (58.7 percent), and Agbaji (63.4 percent). Finally, in terms of finishing at the rim, Davis converts 61.9 percent of his shots, which ranks below Ivey, Mathurin, and Agbaji.
NBA ready skill:
While Davis is not an elite athlete, he’s incredibly skilled, crafty, and has some of the best footwork for a guard that I’ve seen in the college ranks. During an early-January win against Purdue, he put on an absolute clinic. In a season where Ivey has been considered the top guard of this draft, Davis was superior in every way possible. Davis scored in transition, finished through contact, and operated well in the low-post. Davis’ head fake, one-dribble, mid-range pull-up game is the best in the nation. Davis makes the baseline jumper look easy.
But where Davis really separates himself from the rest of the pack is on defense. Davis’ defensive box-plus-minus (3.0) is higher than any other top guard in college, and whenever you watch the tape, it’s easy to see why.
Davis will fight through screens, jump passing lanes, and make his man take difficult shots. He’s a solid help defender as well. Also, it is essential to note that Davis enjoys guarding the opposing team’s best player, especially in crunch time. Davis does not back down from a battle, whether against the Big ten’s Jaden Ivey or Keegan Murray.
Fit with the Knicks:
Davis fits well with just about any team in the NBA. I’m not saying he’s guaranteed to be a perennial All-Star, but he’s going to be a productive player for a long time. On the flip side, I have some questions about Davis’s ability to create his own shot at the next level. At Wisconsin, Davis does so well with coming off screens and various pin downs that I worry about his effectiveness if he’s asked to assume the role of an isolation scorer. Still, Davis will be a top draft pick, and the Knicks should be kicking themselves to draft a top talent like Davis.
1. Jaden Ivey – G, Purdue
Jaden Ivey is a six-foot-four, 200-pound shooting guard with a six-foot-ten wingspan who plays for the fourth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers. Ivey is the most exciting player I’ve enjoyed watching in college.
For most of the season, Ivey has been considered a top-four pick. Yet as of recent, he has been considered a top-three prospect. Like Davis, Ivey was not a top recruit out of high school (ranked 86th), and he also has improved in all major statistical categories since his freshman year. Ivey is averaging 17.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. In addition, he’s shooting 46.3 percent from the field, 36.9 percent from the three-point line, and 74.8 percent from the free-throw line.
Compared to other top-ranked guards such as Davis, Mathurin, and Agbaji, Ivey has the best free-throw rate (47.3 percent). 4.3However, his 63.4 field goal percentage at the rim ranks above Davis but below Mathurin and Agbaji. Also, his 7.8 box-plus-minus ranks below Davis, Mathurin, and Agbaji. And Ivey’s 58.3 true shooting percentage ranks above Davis but below Mathurin and Agbaji.
NBA ready skill:
Ivey is usually compared to Ja Morant because of his elite athleticism. His blend of blinding speed in transition, ability to change direction, and explosion off both feet is rare. Ivey’s strides are incredibly long, and he covers a ton of ground when driving the ball. That is why Ivey is at his best when he’s attacking the rim and putting pressure on the defense.
Yet, he can be a bit predictable in the sense that he drives to his right A LOT. However, he’s challenging to stop when he gets in the air (Ivey is a master at finishing off-balance shots and drives to the rim more than any other player I’ve seen this season).
Now, Ivey will often settle for jumpers, but he’s been pretty efficient this season. Nevertheless, there are concerns about whether Ivey’s shooting will transfer to the NBA. He made a massive jump in both field-goal and three-point percentage during his sophomore year, but one has to wonder if Ivey’s recent shooting is an outlier or not.
When it comes to Ivey’s facilitating, he is a willing distributor who can find cutters and spot-up shooters off his drives. Granted, he gets into some trouble, now and then, when he tries to make a jump pass.
And on defense, Ivey’s strength is being an elite help defender who can block opposing shots into space.
Fit with the Knicks:
You’ve already seen some of Knicks twitter fall in love with Ivey. For a team that is 11 games below .500, it’s hard not to embrace the tank with the possibility of landing Ivey in the draft. Tom Thibodeau has often favored guards who can break down the defense and get to the rim, and Ivey would be exceptional in this area. In addition, general manager Scott Perry has tried to make the Knicks more athletic since his arrival in 2017, and Ivey would represent a significant upgrade in that department.
On the flip side, there’s a small (very small) part of me that questions Ivey’s upside. I wonder about the star potential of a player that essentially just came out of nowhere this season. How much of Ivey’s performance can we use to predict his future in the NBA accurately? Still, I wouldn’t lose sleep over it. Draft Ivey if you have the chance, case closed.
Honorable mention
Bennedict Mathurin and Ochai Abaji are great college guards, and both may get drafted in the lottery. Mathurin is a lock to go top-14, and Agbaji is just on the cusp. I wrote about Mathurin before the start of the college season, and he’s continued to impress. The Wildcats are ranked second in the nation, and Mathurin is averaging 17.3 points per game and has been an efficient shooter. Agbaji is an incredibly efficient finisher at the rim, shoots over 40 percent from three (on 6.7 attempts per game!), and has excellent size. Both players represent just how deep this draft is.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the 2021-22 NBA season. And in case you missed it, make sure to check out CP on WFAN discussing why the Knicks can’t attract big stars.
