The New York Knicks are still in desperate need of a point guard. Can Lonzo Ball solve the problem? Here’s a deep dive into his free agency.
In a stroke of genius, the New Orleans Pelicans dumped the salaries of Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe with an eye on Kyle Lowry in free agency. SNY’s Ian Begley reports that it’s now “highly unlikely” the Pels will match any offer to the restricted free agent Lonzo Ball. This means that Ball should be very much available to the New York Knicks and other suitors like the Chicago Bulls.
Lonzo is a fascinating option as a prospect. He was drafted by the greatest point guard of all time to play point guard and be the face of one of the most iconic franchises in all of sports. Magic Johnson infamously told reporters at Lonzo’s introductory presser that he expected to see a Ball jersey in the rafters someday.
Ball’s free throw shooting defied logic. He was a point guard, but the numbers from the first three seasons of his career would make Shaq blush. It’s been a remarkable turnaround by Lonzo from the prospect with the broken jump shot to a legitimate catch and shoot perimeter threat.
The work that Lonzo put in on his jumper is admirable. He made 165 triples in his first two seasons combined but surpassed that total this season alone with 172 makes from downtown. Ball converted on 130 catch and shoot threes last season — which ranked top 20 in the NBA — and converted at a more than 40 percent clip on those attempts, per NBA Stats.
While Magic Johnson drafted Lonzo to be the leader of an offense, there’s plenty of evidence from people much smarter than me suggesting that Ball is a natural wing.
Jackson Frank wrote a piece about Lonzo for The Analyst in which he says Ball’s ideal role at this time is “a play-linking, floor-spacing wing.”
In Shamit Dua‘s piece on Connection vs. Creation, he states that creators create shots by finding ways to leverage the defense while connectors take advantage of an already leveraged defense.
I had never heard the word connector used to describe a basketball player until the Knicks were linked (no pun intended) to Lonzo. Apparently, that’s what Lonzo is.
My takeaway is that Lonzo hasn’t proven he can start the play, but his high basketball IQ makes him a competent finisher. I looked at each of Lonzo’s career-high 17 assists from a March game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers.
Most of them were like this one where Brandon Ingram breaks down the defense before Lonzo makes the crosscourt pass to set up Josh Hart for the three.
This may sound like it’s insulting to the former No. 2 overall pick, but the truth is that an off-the-ball role may be what’s best for Lonzo.
Lonzo just had the best statistical season of his career playing off the ball. He averaged a career-high 14.6 points, 5.7 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game on a slash line of .414/.378/.781. While Lonzo’s three-point attempts went up (6.3 to 8.3 per game) his percentage didn’t waver.
The almighty Cleaning the Glass labeled the oldest Ball child as a combo guard last season – not a wing but not a point guard either. Lonzo spent 75 percent of his minutes at the shooting guard spot, per CTG.
A big part of Lonzo’s effectiveness in New Orleans was his chemistry with Zion Williamson.
When Lonzo was the point guard with Zion on the court, the Pelicans were +20.4 points per 100 possessions (100th percentile), according to Cleaning the Glass. Of course, it was a small sample size of just 384 possessions. Yet when Lonzo played the point without Zion, the Pels were -1.3 pp100p in 470 possessions.
Lonzo in transition, is a different animal. In theory, he’d speed up a Knicks offense that ranked dead last in pace and fast-break points last season. Ball could open things up for some of the younger Knicks like Mitchell Robinson, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin.
But Julius Randle isn’t the fast break lob threat that Williamson is – I mean, is anybody? Randle prefers a half-court game, and that’s not where Lonzo thrives.
One of the biggest knocks on Lonzo to the Knicks is that he doesn’t make sense as a Thibs point guard because he doesn’t put pressure on the defense.
Lonzo averaged 5 drives per game last season, with only 33.7 percent of those drives resulting in points, per NBA Stats. Of the 143 players who attempted 5 drives per game, Lonzo finished 134th in points percentage and 135th in field goal percentage.
Indeed, Lonzo’s shot profile doesn’t read like that of a typical NBA point guard.
For example, 67 percent of Ball’s makes last season were assisted – placing him in the 23rd percentile for combo guards, according to Cleaning the Glass. He’s sandwiched in between Devonte’ Graham (another potential Knicks target) and Alex Caruso. Neither one of those players is running an NBA offense.
Lonzo made just 41 pull-up threes (31.1 percent) in comparison to his elite catch and shoot numbers. Those are the kind of numbers that make defenders go under screens.
We also need to consider that Lonzo is 23 years old, and he’s never played in a stable situation. Lonzo spent two years with the Luke Walton Lakers and two more with the David Griffin Pels.
There’s been a remarkable amount of incompetence around Lonzo since he made it to the league. Maybe a move to New York with their elite coaching staff would help. (Can you believe you just read that?)
That’s part of the argument for Knicks Fan TV’s Alex Trataros. Alex ranked Lonzo No. 1 on the list of point guards the Knicks should target in free agency. Alex cites Lonzo’s 7.4 drives per game as a rookie – before he played with LeBron James or Zion Williamson – as evidence, he can get those drive numbers up on a different team.
The thing I don’t like about Lonzo is that signing him is a $20 million gamble. I’d feel a lot better about placing that bet if I had someone like Kyle Lowry or Chris Paul already under contract, and those guys aren’t a realistic option.
I’m concerned about the fact that he doesn’t put pressure on the defense. I’m also concerned about the fact that he attempted the same amount of free throws last season as someone named Mason Jones.
But mostly, I’m concerned with signing a guy to play on the ball when all the evidence suggests we should be playing him off the ball. If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
There’s a lot you can’t say about Lonzo Ball, but you have to admit the kid is fascinating. Unfortunately, fascinating isn’t necessarily an adjective that you want to describe your starting point guard in the NBA. In Lonzo’s case, it may not make for a point guard at all.
Let us know if you think the New York Knicks make a move for Lonzo Ball! Either in the comment section below or in the social media comments section of where this piece is posted!
