Julius Randle is having an All-NBA caliber season for the New York Knicks, and he is at his best when on the road.
It’s been a roller-coaster season for the New York Knicks, but one area that’s remained steady has been the team’s ability to win games on the road. The Knicks are 22-14 on the road this year, tied for the most road wins in the NBA. The Knicks’ ability to win games in opponents’ arenas is an encouraging sign for the Knicks’ Faithful, considering their team will probably enter the postseason without homecourt advantage in any round.
When diving into the team’s road performance this season, one thing stands out above all else: Julius Randle has been significantly better on the road this season than at home. Here are the facts (per Basketball Reference):
- 16 of Randle’s 21 games with 30-plus points this season have come on the road
- 11 of Randle’s 15 games with 5-plus three-pointers have come on the road
- Eight of Randle’s ten highest field goal percentage games have come on the road
- Eight of Randle’s ten lowest field goal percentage games have come at home
And when looking at Randle’s overall home versus road splits, we can see a stark contrast in his scoring production (see table below).
The home versus road splits shows that Julius Randle averages 27.3 points per game on the road versus 23.2 at home (+4.1 points road differential).
He shoots at a clip of 47.7 percent from the field on the road and 43.8 percent at home (+3.9 percent road differential).
From three-point territory, Randle shoots 38.1 percent away from MSG compared to 29.8 percent on the Garden floor (+8.3 percent road differential).
And finally, he averages 7.6 free throw attempts per game on the road versus 6.3 at home (+1.3 road differential).
So as you can see, not only does Julius Randle average over four more points per game on the road than at home, but he’s doing so on much higher efficiency while also getting to the free throw line more often.
Randle’s +4.1 points per game differential is the largest gap between road and home games for any top 50 scorer in the NBA. Think about that! And the differentials in his field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage rank third and fourth, respectively, among the top 50 scorers.
Additionally, Julius Randle is one of three top 50 scorers with better numbers in all three noted categories on the road than at home (Kyrie Irving and Kelly Oubre Jr.).
The apparent disparity in Julius Randle’s home versus road offensive production is fascinating, especially compared to the rest of the league’s top scorers.
So to get a better understanding of why these numbers are so different, let’s take a deep dive into Randle’s home versus road shot profile and efficiency:
The table above shows that 26 percent of Randle’s field goal attempts at home are at the rim versus 18 percent on the road. It’s a positive sign to see Randle attempting a larger share of his shots at the basket in MSG, but his efficiency here is 62 percent versus 75 percent on the road.
To put these field goal percentages into perspective, 62 percent at the rim is around the 20th percentile for forwards, while 75 percent is close to the 90th percentile (per Cleaning the Glass). So, Julius Randle needs help converting at the hoop on the Garden floor while he thrives in this department on the road.
Based on Randle’s shot profile, the decrease in attempts at the rim on the road is replaced by an increased three-point and short (3-10 ft) two-point shot frequency (47 and 17 percent, respectively). Now, focusing on the three-pointers, Randle shoots an excellent 38 percent on the road but a well-below-average 30 percent at home. Like his at-the-rim efficiency, this contrast is concerning because it’s the difference between elite and poor shooting.
Combining the rim and three-point field goal attempts, the two most analytics-friendly shot locations, Randle shoots 68 percent of these attempts at home compared to 65 percent on the road. What’s interesting here is that Randle’s shot profile is more efficient at home, but he’s converting on these shots at a far lower rate.
Julius Randle’s two-point attempts between three feet from the basket and just inside the three-point line vary in efficiency depending on the distance. Nevertheless, he’s shooting an even 47 percent from these combined distances at home and on the road. Thus, the real issue is Randle’s drop in efficiency at the rim and beyond the arc.
As New York enters the home stretch of the regular season, Knicks fans are beginning to wonder how this team will perform in the postseason, where the intensity reaches a new level. As the team’s leading scorer, Julius Randle will need to perform in clutch situations if the Knicks want to do anything meaningful come playoff time. And like Randle’s overall home versus road performance this season, we also see a difference when looking at clutch situations.
Looking below at Randle’s offensive numbers in clutch situations, it’s apparent that Randle shoots at a higher efficiency in the clutch on the road (clutch situations are defined here as games within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime).
And what’s not shown in the data table above is that Randle has played just two clutch-situation games without Jalen Brunson at home versus four on the road. In theory, without Brunson on the floor down the stretch of games, defenses can key in on Randle and make it harder for him to score. However, the opposite effect happens here, as Randle’s overall road production in the clutch wasn’t dragged down by playing more games in these situations without Brunson.
In almost 20 fewer minutes in clutch situations on the road, Randle has scored 16 more points and attempted 15 more free throws. And while his clutch-situation field goal (35.5 percent) and three-point field goal (35.3 percent) percentages aren’t significant on the road, they are better than his home numbers.
Fortunately for the Knicks, Jalen Brunson has been one of the NBA’s top performers in the clutch this season. However, the Knicks will also need Julius Randle, the team’s leading scorer, to carry his own down the stretch of close games in the postseason.
With the Knicks’ chances of catching Cleveland for the four seed slipping away, many New York fans might be bummed that a potential game seven in the first round will not be played in the World’s Most Famous Arena. But given the vast jump in Julius Randle’s efficiency away from Madison Square Garden this season, it’s worth asking yourself the question:
If the Knicks need their top scorer to perform at a high level to clinch a playoff series in game seven, would you rather see Julius Randle playing that game at home or on the road?
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP’s interview with hip-hop artist, Skyzoo!
