RJ Barrett is entering his fourth season with the New York Knicks. Will Barrett take the next leap in his development this year?
As the media continues to push the #LOLKnicks narrative despite the competence and patience of the current front office, Knicks haters and desperate attention-seekers have turned to online RJ Barrett slander to get their likes and retweets. The 21-year-old has done nothing but give New York fans some hope about the future, but naysayers continue to poke holes in his game until they make them seem like craters.
RJ Barrett’s third year in the league was quite pivotal. After the front office resigned veterans and brought in Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, the Knicks set on their quest to reach the playoffs for the second year in a row led by Julius Randle. Aside from an abysmal playoff performance, Barrett excelled as a 3&D player in his sophomore season and showed flashes of his ability to get to the basket at will.
Both Barrett and the New York Knicks began the season well but quickly fell into a slump. From November 5th to December 10th, he averaged just 13.2 points and 1.8 assists on 35.7 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from three. The Knicks went 7-11 in that span, sparking the beginning of the end to their playoff hopes.
Randle didn’t perform well either, and his poor effort, emotional antics, and post-game no-shows generated questions about his ability to lead a team. Barrett, meanwhile, displayed a Derek-Jeter-like maturity with the media, took ownership of the team’s struggles, and embraced the challenge of being the Knicks’ leader.
The tides shifted as soon as the calendar flipped to 2022. The team made Barrett more of a focal point in the offense, and he took advantage of the opportunity. From January to April, Barrett scored 23.6 points per game on .412/.352/.719 splits in 37.1 minutes per game. (For reference, a 23.6 scoring average for the season would have tied him with Jaylen Brown for 13th in the league). In addition, his usage rate during that span was 30.0, a drastic increase from his 24.2 rate to start the season.
The 6’6″ wing put up some impressive games during his hot streak, such as this scoring Master Class against the Miami Heat, in which he dropped a career-high 46 points. His clutch performance in an overtime thriller against the Lakers also showcased some serious promise. And no one could forget about his epic game-winner against the Celtics in the Garden. Overall, Barrett finished the 2021-22 season with a stat line of 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists while shooting .408/.342/.712 in 70 games. Pretty impressive, right?
So, what’s all the slander about? Aside from hot-aired hot takes, clickbaity omissions from too many Top 25 Under 25 lists, and overblown knocks (he’s too stiff! too slow! no hops! he can’t dribble! his hips! yada yada), many are critical of his below-average shooting percentages from all three levels. Within context, his 2021-22 numbers reflect a subpar team offensive system, the growing pains of new responsibility, and youthful inconsistencies.
The acquisitions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier left Barrett often struggling to find his rhythm within the game. As a result, there were too many mouths to feed on offense. Pair that with Mitchell Robinson constantly clogging driving lanes, and you have 82 games of low percentage step-back jumpers by the four other starters of the league’s worst five-man lineup (by Net Rating). With no reliable point guard, the Knicks’ offense ranked last in assists and rarely got easy baskets all season.
The season prior was a simpler time. Elfrid Payton got the ball to Randle in his favorite spots, and Randle kicked it out to knock down shooters from the high and low post. In 2020-21, Barrett shot .401 from three, including .41 on catch and shoot threes (4 attempts per game) and .424 from the corner. Last year, those numbers lowered to .342 overall, .368 on catch and shoot (4.5 attempts per game), and a terrible .310 from the corners.
Barrett’s rim attacks also left much more to be desired. His size, strength, and pacing make him elite at driving to the rim but ranked very poorly in finishing. BBall Index graded him an A+ for “Rim Shot Creation” but an F in “Rim Shot Making” last season. Every missed layup after an aggressive drive felt like a missed opportunity, save for the moments Robinson was able to clean up the mess (Barrett must have led the league in “Kobe Assists”). Already an average athlete (if we’re being honest), he’ll have to continue to work on his touch and find craftier ways to score against opposing bigs, especially if Robinson continues to be a non-threat outside of the restricted area.
The free throw percentage is inexcusable; there is no point in driving to the rim so much if you can’t secure free points when you get fouled—the team ranked 26th in the league in free throw percentage. Hopefully, improvements from the stripe can be a group effort. Immanuel Quickley and Cam Reddish should lead some practices.
Defensively, Barrett was willing to guard the opposing team’s best players. According to BBall Index, Barrett ranked in the 93.9 percentile amongst all players in “Matchup Difficulty.” He was a crucial part of the Knicks’ perimeter defense in a starting lineup with Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. And he’ll be just as essential next to Jalen Brunson and (likely) Evan Fournier or Donovan Mitchell this season. (My vote would be for Quentin Grimes over Fournier, but I doubt the organization would start him to begin the season.)
Entering year three, RJ revealed that his goal was to make the All-Defensive first team. He began the season making a strong case for the award, notably locking up players Jayson Tatum and DeMar DeRozan in some early clutch victories.
All in all, his defensive performance in 2021-22 was solid. Like his offensive consistency, though, RJ’s defensive effort fluctuated throughout the season. In every other game, you could hear Coach Tom Thibodeau’s voice on the broadcast barking at him for missing a rotation, ball-watching, or carelessly fouling a player. He doesn’t play the passing lanes much, either—he only averaged 0.6 steals per game. While steals don’t always correlate with overall defensive ability on the perimeter, the Knicks could benefit from generating more fastbreak opportunities.
There are some valid points to be made about Barrett’s deficiencies, but to even allude to him being a bust is blasphemy. I understand people might have expected more from a #3 pick, especially one selected right after Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. But if the Knicks are as dysfunctional as people claim, then Barrett’s play should be seen in a much more positive light. Considering he’s still the third youngest player on the roster and embraces the responsibility of being their most effective play on both offense and defense.
It will be exciting to see what RJ Barrett has in store for year four, especially with the additions of point guard Jalen Brunson and versatile big man Isaiah Hartenstein, as well as a seemingly inevitable Donovan Mitchell homecoming coming soon. He already works hard in the off-season with trainer Drew Hanlen, but proving haters wrong and leading the team back to the playoffs adds some extra motivation to perform well.
Money will be another motive, too. Barrett is due for a new contract, and he can sign a max extension with the Knicks worth $185 million for five years. That contract is worth an average annual value of $37 million. To put it into perspective, a $37 million salary would rank 19th in the entire league, ahead of franchise players like Devin Booker ($33.8 million), Joel Embiid ($33.6 million), and Nikola Jokic ($32.4 million, the final year before his supermax kicks in).
When comparing his productivity in year three to other players, Barrett looks well ahead of schedule in terms of development, with efficiency being the final piece of the puzzle. His numbers are impressive and look even better considering his young age. Let’s look at how similar players in the league did in their third years:
Barrett has had many opportunities to grow early in his career, as shown by the shot attempts and points per game numbers. At this stage, he also averaged the most assists, even though it feels like he’s only scratched the surface in that aspect of his game. However, if he continues to play more on-ball and make the right reads on pick and rolls and kick-outs, he can quickly raise his average to around 4.0 or 4.5.
Now that he’s proven he can average 20 points, raising his shooting percentages will make him a consistent lead scorer. Just one glimpse at his 2021-22 game log will show you he’s prone to having 30 points one night and 10 points the next. He had 20 games where he shot .500 or better and 16 games where he shot .300 or worse. If Barrett just made his open shots and finished his layups, his numbers would look immensely better, even before integrating a mid-range game.
Keeping it simple will also be necessary. According to NBA.com, Barrett’s efficiency fell with each dribble he took. The more purposeful he is with the ball, the better he’ll be. Also, Jalen Brunson’s presence should allow him to be more resourceful. Given how those players have progressed, 45 percent from the field, 38 percent from three, and 78 percent from the line feel like realistic objectives.
Let’s add a few more all-stars into the mix:
No one expects Barrett to shoot like Klay or score like Kobe, but he’s shown that he can put up similar numbers. Most of the other players are better free throw shooters, but Barrett was among the best of this bunch at getting to the free-throw line and should increase his attempts even more as he grows more apt at drawing fouls.
Donovan Mitchell or not, Barrett can once again average 20 points next season. With Mitchell, he could thrive off-ball, making cuts and spotting up as he did in 2020-21. If the Knicks don’t make a trade, Barrett can still get his catch-and-shoot opportunities off of Randle and Brunson, and he should get chances to run some two-man game with Randle through DHOs and pick and roll. Playing with Hartenstein will also open up the lane more for his rim attacks. So 23.0 points feels like a solid prediction.
On the defensive end, a prime RJ Barrett should compete with all those other players (besides DeRozan, who I’d argue RJ is already better than defensively). You’d like to see him play the passing lanes a bit more often, but more importantly, his effort and focus should be there for all 48 minutes more often. His defensive rating (111.6) was a bit worse than the Knicks’ team rating (110.2). Barrett preaches defense as a priority in post-game conferences, so he needs to stand out on that end if he wants to lead the team on the court too.
SNY’s Ian Begley recently reported that Utah wants RJ Barrett in a trade involving Donovan Mitchell. Who could blame them? Still, I doubt the Jazz will want to go through the headache of negotiating a pricey long-term deal with Barrett, so they’ll probably settle for a combination of rookie contracts and draft picks. And even if the Knicks’ front office is split on making him available, I think they know better than to trade away a young stud with a 4-syllable name that feels so natural to chant in New York.
The franchise’s future is in RJ’s hands, and he’s got the work ethic and stone-cold poise to handle it. Few players in the league could endure New York’s hostile sports environment, nor could they thrive in an on-court role that frequently evolves. (As good as Mikal Bridges is, for example, how well would he perform in Barrett’s situation?)
Eventually, writers and media members will have no choice but to recognize his talent properly, and the world will see him elevate his game to another level when he’s discussed as a potential first-time all-star next season.
So please keep it coming, RJ haters. Your comments will add more fuel to the fire.
😂
— Rj Barrett (@RjBarrett6) August 15, 2022
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