Knicks Lineups Deep Dive Pt. 2: Playoff Prep

The New York Knicks are mixing and matching the right pieces together as they gain health before the playoffs. Let’s take a look at their best and worst lineups since the OG Anunoby trade.

A lot has happened since we visited the numbers for New York Knicks lineups three months ago: two major trades, multiple ominous injury reports, and career-best stretches by several players. 

Donte DiVincenzo’s scoring uptick has made him the best value (non-rookie) contract in the league. Deuce McBride entered that race with his offensive growth after signing a three-year, $13 million extension. Precious Achiuwa’s homecoming might have saved his career. And Josh Hart is breaking teams with rebounds again. 

It’s been a bumpy ride. Since the OG Anunoby trade, the Knicks went 14-2 in January, then 2-5, and then 4-5 before winning seven of their last eight games. Newcomers Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks are still finding rhythm in their roles. But, the Knicks continue to fight and claw for every victory as they await crucial reinforcements before the real games begin. 

I returned to NBA.com’s minutes and lineup data to check out which player combinations deserve more time together, which should stay apart, and which lineups could find their way into Coach Tom Thibodeau’s playoff gameplan if/when the Knicks reach full strength:

Knicks Minutes Distribution in 2024

Net Rating

Again, a quick reminder of what the following statistics quantify.
Offensive rating: The number of points a team scores per 100 possessions.
Defensive rating: The number of points a team gives up per 100 possessions.
Net rating: The difference between the offensive and defensive rating (the more positive, the better).

OG, the Plus/Minus Merchant

Immanuel Quickley was the golden ticket to success in the last lineup-related article. It was only right for him to be in a trade for the Final Boss of net ratings. 

OG Anunoby has played minutes alongside ten other current Knicks. Every single one of those duos have a net rating of at least 12.6 (with Alec Burks). His lowest net rating with another certified Knicks starter is 19.6 with Donte DiVincenzo. The Knicks have faced top-tier, mid-tier, and bottom-tier teams since the New Year, and OG’s play has been effective in every matchup.

I don’t mind him resting until he’s close to 100%. He’s worth the wait. And the Knicks, 12-11 without Anunoby in 2024, are good enough to tread water. No need to rush until that elbow heals up.

The Starters: Various Iterations

Brunson/DDV/OG/Randle/I-Hart: 126.6 off, 110.0 def, 16.6 net (10 games, 180 mins)
Brunson/DDV/Hart/Achiuwa/I-Hart: 119.5 off, 113.0 def, 6.4 net (12 games, 189 mins)
Brunson/DDV/Hart/OG/I-Hart: 108.9 off, 87.2 def, 21.8 net (5 games, 54 mins)

Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Isaiah Hartenstein have held down the fort since the New Year, even while battling their own injuries. The Knicks’ first five are always competitive and willing to go all 48 if needed.

The unofficial “Next Man Up” award goes to Precious Achiuwa, who averaged 12.5 points, 9.5 rebounds (3.9 offensive), and 1.8 blocks as a starter with the Knicks. With that said, teams started to expose the Hart-Achiuwa-Hartenstein frontcourt’s lack of spacing over time, leading to an anemic 73-point night against the 76ers on March 10. I don’t think that group should play together again, regardless of whether Anunoby and Randle are back.

Thibs Goes Small!

Brunson/Deuce/DDV/Hart/I-Hart: 141.1 off, 104.8 def, 36.3 net (9 games, 94 mins)

When OG Anunoby went down mid-West road trip, Tom Thibodeau reminded us all that he’s a Coach of the Year candidate who’s more than capable of making adjustments when necessary. The Precious iteration of the starting five was no more. Thibs instead started Deuce McBride with Jalen Brunson, going small to catch the Warriors by surprise. By the way, it worked.

[Note: Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley played 377 minutes together in 2023-24, finishing with an 11.6 net rating. They never started a single game together in their two seasons on the same team.] 

The Warriors were the perfect team to trial that lineup against. Denver’s lineup had simply too much height to contain, but the Knicks still compete well even on rougher nights. Considering the Knicks just stomped on a G-League-level Toronto Raptors team, take this unit’s net rating with a grain of salt in nonsubstantial sample size. I’m moreso focusing on the fact that Deuce and Brunson coexist well, and Thibs is buying into their Ying-Yang qualities. They are +17.0 together in 261 minutes this season.

McBride’s point of attack defense gives Brunson the ability to rest off-ball, and Deuce is one of the best players in the league at navigating screens and pestering opposing guards. On offense, he looks much more confident shooting and attacking off of catches. The Knicks will need him to develop into an effective lead guard in the future, but as of now, he gives the team even more positional flexibility.

While this feels a little like a free trial for a Jalen Brunson/Donovan Mitchell backcourt, I can’t imagine Donovan sticking to Steph Curry—or any guard—as well as McBride can. And that’s an important part of the tandem’s success. 

The Bench Still Needs Help

After the OG Anunoby trade, Knicks fans had their eyes on another deal that would bring in a scorer off the bench to relieve Jalen Brunson of his hefty duties for at least 12 minutes a game; Malcolm Brogdon and Jordan Clarkson were two names often mentioned. Instead, the Knicks traded Quentin Grimes, filler, and a second-round pick to acquire Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, adopting a more “by committee” approach to the bench unit’s offense with Randle and Anunoby sidelined.

In the last lineup deep dive, the IQ/DDV/RJ/Hart/I-Hart bench unit was firing on all cylinders, often propelling the Knicks to wins when the starters had no juice. Since then, two of those players were shipped out of town, and the others got promotions to fill in as starters, with Donte and Hartenstein there as permanent promotions. 

Compare the old bench units’ 8.2 net rating to the current one: McBride and Hart (who play so much they’re both starter and bench), Burks, and Bogdanovic are a -15.4 together in 98 minutes—Thibs has gone to that group in 17 games, which is fourth most since the New Year. Deuce, Burks, Bogdanovic, and Achiuwa are a -25.0 together in 73 minutes when they’ve shared the court with any fifth player. Burks and Bogdanovic together in any context have been a -9.4 in 211 minutes.

All five players from the original bench mob contributed to dribble penetration, ball movement, and transition offense. Several variations of lineups with 2024 Deuce McBride on the floor without Jalen Brunson, even with his hot shooting, have sub -90.0 offensive ratings. A Deuce and Burks backcourt is -18.9 in 168 minutes with a poor 1.11 assist/turnover ratio (notable, considering McBride has a remarkable 3.75 AST/TO ratio on the season). Even with Deuce hot shooting, neither guard creates consistent easy looks for others via dribble penetration or pick-and-roll execution.

Alec Burks (.320/.303/.710) and Bojan Bogdanovic (.409/.366./.806) were brought in from Detroit to be short-term scoring options and long short-term depth pieces for Thibs to mix and match. Their defense has been just as bad as their shooting, if not worse. If they don’t find a rhythm soon, then team health becomes the only solution. And that’s no guarantee.

The bench still desperately needs one of Jalen Brunson or Julius Randle on the floor with OG Anunoby next to them.

Quick Hits:

• Best Duo: OG Anunoby and Josh Hart (30.6 net rating in 294 minutes).
• Worst Duo: Deuce and Burks (aforementioned).
• Detroit Syndrome: With only rotation players, the worst eight Knicks duos in 2024 involve either Burks or Bojan.
• Best Trio (min. 15 minutes): OG, Hart, and Julius (53.0 in 72 minutes).
• Worst Trio: Bojan, Donte, and I-Hart (32.5 net rating in 37 minutes. Yikes.
• The Closers: Brunson/Hart/OG/Randle/I-Hart has a 60.2 net rating in 41 minutes. They closed out several games in January before the injuries hit. I expect this to be the closing lineup in the playoffs, too. Donte DiVincenzo has done nothing but play the best basketball of his career, but I think Thibs values Hart’s offensive rebounding too much to make a change unless on-court disaster hits.
• The Nova Boys are +6.6 in 806 minutes this season as the Knicks’ most common trio. Just wait until Mikal gets here.
• Bojan and OG are +27.9 in 17 minutes this season. Very small sample size, but that might be a combination that leads New York’s second units at full strength. The best way to protect your worst defender is to play your best one. 
• Alec Burks and Isaiah Hartenstein are 11.6 in 38 minutes together. We’ve found another match!
• Slowpoke: In terms of Pace, six of the eight slowest Knicks duos in 2024 include Jericho Sims. But if there was a stat called ‘Vert’ I’m sure he’d be at the top.

Lineups Combos to Consider:

Brunson/DDV/Hart/OG/Randle: It’s simple—play your five best players when you need an offensive punch. Let Josh Hart crash the glass. Switch OG onto the center if needed. Ball game. 

Deuce/OG/Bojan/Randle/I-Hart: The best non-Brunson bench bunch? This group surrounds Julius Randle with shooters and willing off-ball movers. But beware of the defensive woes.

I’ve heard people say Julius Randle’s return should make Bojan’s role a lot easier. On offense, I completely agree. I know it’s been a while since we’ve seen Julius, but his defense post-2021 season has been lackadaisical (at his peak level of engagement, though, he’s solid. That’s why it’s frustrating). The Knicks managed to collect the two most slow-footed power forwards in the league with the least effective closeouts.

Hence the need for McBride, Anunoby, and Hartenstein’s presence to sure up the defense and provide even more kickout options when teams send two at Randle. DiVincenzo can replace OG if there’s a need for a bit more ball-handling. Hartenstein provides an outlet for ball movement and two-man actions as well. 

This five doesn’t need to be brilliant. But when Jalen Brunson sits for ~5 mins each playoff half, the Knicks need to hit shots regardless of how well they can defend and slow the game down.

Deuce/OG/Hart/Precious/Robinson: a.k.a., the “one-stop squad.

Question: how many teams would sub out their two best players if they needed one stop at the end of the game? 

Maybe Thibs would keep Randle in for Achiuwa. But I’d like to replay that Devin Booker game-winner in the Garden with Precious and OG in for Julius and RJ. 

Brunson/DDV/OG/Bojan/Mitch + Deuce/Burks/Hart/Randle/I-Hart: If the Knicks want to put the Detroit guys in positions to be successful, here’s an option. At this moment, I’d rather they share the floor as little as possible.

At Knicks’ Full Strength, Who Gets the Boot?

Assuming Anunoby and Randle are back for the playoffs, there will be some tough cuts to the rotation. Brunson, DiVincenzo, Anunoby, Randle, and Hartenstein are pretty much locks to start. Hart and Robinson will play good minutes off the bench. I think Deuce has officially earned Thibs’ trust to play all non-Brunson minutes at least, with potential for overlap in certain matchups.

So, that leaves Precious Achiuwa, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Alec Burks to make their case. Thibs could shorten the rotation to eight players considering their collective positional versatility and endurance. If spacing becomes an issue like it did against Miami last year, I would lean Bojan, but only when he’s surrounded by OG and either center.

Could the Knicks survive if Julius Randle’s shoulder isn’t ready to go in the postseason? His 24.0 points and 9.2 rebounds would be difficult to replace, not to mention the innate attention he draws from opposing defenses. With that said, the run that Bojan and Precious get now is important in preparing them for the Knicks’ worst-case scenario just in case. Although Achiuwa is not a modern power forward, Thibs is sympathetic to the Taj Gibson-type of hardnosed small bigs. Expect him to have at least one playoff moment off sheer hustle.

Lock in, Knicks fans. It’s the final stretch of the season, and there’s a lot more to find out about before April, May, and June.

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below! Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. Subscribe to the newsletter for KFTV content and events, shop discounts, and more at bit.ly/kftvmail. And in case you missed it, check out CP The Fanchise discussing the state of the Knicks and more with The Athletic’s Mike Vorkunov.