The New York Knicks are 1-1 in the In-Season Tournament. Can they stay in the mix and defeat the Miami Heat?
The Knicks are 1-1 in the In-Season Tournament and third in East Group B standings. They face the Miami Heat tonight and need to win to stay in the mix to potentially move on to the tournament’s Knockout Round. But defeating the Heat will be no easy task, as they’ve won nine of their last ten games.
While the Heat are rolling, the Knicks are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. And after having three days off from their last, the Knicks should be rested enough to get back in the win column.
Now, this is the first time both teams are meeting this season after duking it out in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, and we know how that ended (Heat won the series, 4-2). So New York should enter this matchup with a chip on their shoulder. Additionally, this is the In-Season Tournament, so playoff implications are on the line, meaning the Knicks should want to give the Heat payback and be a reason why they could fall out of the road to Las Vegas.
On top of all of that, the fact that Pat Riley left the Knicks and used the exact same blueprint to create the Heat and help them win three championships still burns to this day.
There is enough oil to create a roaring flame, even if the Heat is missing some key players and the Knicks have all their main guys for tonight.
So, with that said, let’s look at the critical components of this matchup.
The possession battle is important
Both teams aren’t high-powered offenses, but what they do well is score efficiently. The Knicks have a 113.8 offensive rating (ranked 11th), and the Heat’s is 113.7 (ranked 12th). And one of the reasons both are so good at making use of most of their possessions is because they’re good at protecting the rock.
New York ranks 4th in the league with 12.9 turnovers per game, and Miami is in a three-way tie for 7th with 13.4. So this game will come down to the possession battle on who can make the fewest mistakes.
But there are two things the Knicks should try to take advantage of the Heat.
One is that the Knicks should attack the Heat in transition. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks are 15th in scoring in transition, and the Heat rank 28th in defending in transition. So, if New York wants to succeed at making the Heat work, it will be attacking in transition since both teams protect the ball so well.
The last thing the Knicks could try and do is control the glass, which the Knicks are great at. The Knicks rank second in the league in rebounds, while the Heat are 27th. Stopping Miami from getting extra possessions will force them to shoot more efficiently, which is a tall order for any team. On top of that, with the way Mitchell Robinson has been grabbing boards (especially on the offensive glass) Miami may struggle trying to prevent New York from getting second chance (or more) opportunities.
Scoring in the paint will be tough
According to NBA stats, the Heat rank 27th when it comes to scoring in the paint, while the Knicks rank 29th. Conversely, both teams are in the top 10 defending the paint (New York is fifth, and the Heat is eighth).
Translation: Expect both teams to struggle to get anything going inside.
For the Knicks, this is a strange position to be in, considering they were 15th in the league last year. As for the Heat, they were hovering around the same spot they are now.
It makes sense why they are in the basement, considering the slow start to the season that Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. As I chronicled earlier this year in another In-Season Tournament preview, both Brunson and Randle were shooting under 40 percent through five games to start the season. And remember that both players succeed 14 feet and closer to the basket, where they missed most of their shots.
And to compound the issue, since most of the team wasn’t shooting the three-ball well to start the season either, it impacted Brunson, Randle, and Mitchell Robinson’s success on the interior.
Now, both have picked it up since that first five-game stretch, but it’s still too early for them to make up for the poor shooting they had at the beginning of the season to translate to the stat sheet. But unlike Boston and Minnesota, New York should have some success in the paint tonight against Miami’s undersized frontcourt.
Knicks need to hit their threes
After starting the season woefully from hitting shots from behind the arc, New York has been impressive to start thus far.
Now, the Knicks didn’t shoot well in their most recent matchup against the Timberwolves—they shot a 23.7 three-point percentage (9-38)—but we should be optimistic that New York can get back on track. Why? The Knicks are currently ninth in the league with their three-point percentage at 37 percent. And what makes that number more impressive is that they’re knocking down their threes at such a high volume, with 36.9 threes attempted per game (ranked 10th).
If New York can get back in their three-point groove, then they should find success against Miami. According to Cleaning the Glass, Miami ranks 25th in the NBA when defending the accuracy of the three, allowing opponents to average 39.2 percent (for reference, the Memphis Grizzlies are the worst three-point defending team, allowing 41.2 percent).
Considering Miami likes to run a zone, which has been New York’s kryptonite in past seasons, it’ll be interesting to see if the Heat go that route and dare the Knicks to shoot. If New York can take advantage of such a defensive scheme, we’ll be getting closer to believing that the Knicks’ three-point shooting is real.
This In-Season Tournament matchup should be a good one between the Knicks and Heat. Both fanbases will have their blood boiling while New York and Miami are situated to have another grueling and memorable matchup.
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