In-Season Tournament: Knicks vs. Bucks Preview

The New York Knicks have their first In-Season Tournament game against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Here is a preview of the matchup.

The NBA in-season tournament starts today, and the New York Knicks’ first opponent in this new format is the Milwaukee Bucks.

Through five games to start the season, New York is 2-3 against some tough opponents (Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Pelicans, and the Cleveland Cavaliers). And through those five games, the Knicks have been inconsistent, mainly on the offensive side of the ball—it’s a small sample size, but the Knicks are tied for 27th in the league with an offensive rating of 103.8.

Conversely, for the most part, New York’s defense has been up to snuff—the Knicks have a defensive rating of 102.4 and are ranked second in the league. Whether that is everyone defending well in isolation, making their rotations, closing out onto the three-point line, or the centers providing the rim protection that Tom Thibodeau preaches.

But having a solid defense will only help so much in this league. The Knicks need their offense to get into rhythm if they’re going to finish this season well, especially if they want to win the inaugural In-Season Tournament. They’ll need their offense if they’re going to keep pace with the Bucks’ new trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton. 

Nothing ever comes easy for the New York Knicks (or Knicks fans). When the league did its randomized group selection, the Knicks were ever so lucky to be in Group B, consisting of the Bucks, Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, and Washington Wizards. New York isn’t unlucky that they have the Hornets or Wizards in their group—granted, they have given the Knicks a tough time in the past. But more so, the Bucks and Heat have been consistently tough matchups for the Knickerbockers. 

But while it is futile to harp on the drawing for the Knicks, let’s break down this matchup.

In-Season Tournament Formant

Before I get into the matchup, let’s have a refresher about the In-Season Tournament, which is integrated into the 82 regular game season. 

Each conference has three random group draws, which consist of five teams each. Within the group draws each team will play four games (two home and two away). 

Eight teams – four per conference – will advance from Group Play to the second round of the In-Season Tournament (aka the Knockout Rounds). The Knockout Rounds will consist of six group winners and two wild card teams (teams that finished second in their group). 

The Knockout Rounds are single-elimination games consisting of the Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Championship. The Quarterfinals will be in NBA team markets, while the Semifinals and Championship will occur at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Now that the refresher is out of the way, let’s understand the crucial factors for how the Knicks will need to approach this matchup against Milwaukee (if you would like to learn more about the In-Season Tournament, you can click here). 

The Knicks need to maintain the Dame and Giannis pick-and-roll

The Dame and Giannis pick-and-roll will be a tall order, but the Knicks need to try their best to limit the success of their two-man action. This play is very predictable because it’s the two top stars of the Bucks. This is a challenging cover for the Knicks because Giannis, a freight train, is strong at getting downhill and finishing around the rim through contact. As for Dame, he is a shifty guard capable of creating space around the perimeter, getting downhill, or knowing when to pop for a midrange jumper. 

If we are thinking about how the Knicks will defend this play, it’ll probably be Quentin Grimes primarily guarding Dame, with some combination of Immanuel Quickley and Donte DiVincenzo. As for defending Giannis, it’ll probably be a mix of Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Now, even though Lillard did play against the Knicks last season, we don’t have any data on how he performed against our guards. However, Donte did have some success defending Dame by forcing him to shoot 37.5 percent from the field.

As for Giannis, he pretty much had his way against the Knicks last year. He shot 46.9 percent against Randle, 53.3 percent against Robinson, and 44.4 percent against Hartenstein. So, as you can see, there is little resistance against Giannis.

Based on the numbers, it’s possible to slow down Lillard than it is Antetokounmpo. So it’s a better strategy to ensure Dame doesn’t catch fire.  

The Knicks stars must step up

Better shooting is the most straightforward answer to the Knicks’ problems. Being more efficient would resolve most of their issues.

New York is dead last in field goal percentage with 40 percent (the Denver Nuggets currently lead the league with 50.8 percent). The thing with the Knicks is that it has been a mixed bag of reasons why their shooting has been woeful. Whether it’s limited spacing, players being reluctant to shoot the three when they’re open (which hurts their spacing even more), poor shot selection, or their shots simply not falling. Each player on the Knicks has experienced this issue. But all this can be solved with Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle finding their groove.

Brunson and Randle have been hot and cold to the start of the season for different reasons. But both are shooting below 40 percent from the field through the first five games, hurting the team’s ability to find early success in the season. 

For Brunson, his struggles are due to his shots not falling. Jalen is getting to his spots with ease for the most part. He did struggle against the height and wingspan of New Orleans, but for the rest of the matchups, his shot is just not falling.  

As for Randle, it appears to be two things. One, Randle isn’t being as aggressive at scoring in the first quarter as last season. For the previous season, Randle was fourth in the NBA in points averaged in the first quarter with 9.1 and second in the NBA in first quarter points scored with 703. On top of that, he was efficient, shooting 47.1 percent from the field. This season, Randle’s average is 3.6 points in the first quarter while shooting 22.2 percent. 

I do not expect Randle to continue to shoot like this for the rest of the season. But I would like to see him get back to being a tone-setter. Having him be the physical force for opponents to hone in on first then sets Brunson and the rest of the Knicks to fall into place. For Brunson in particular, if Randle starts rolling offensively, then opponents will have to start doubling Randle, leaving Brunson in single coverage. And if Brunson is in single coverage, he can attack more freely. And then once defenses begin to shift to focusing on Brunson, Randle should start seeing single coverage, and then both Randle and Brunson can alternate attacking defenses. 

The second reason for Randle’s struggle is that it seems like he is looking to take a more holistic approach. Now you’re probably wondering: Alex, what do you mean by that? And what I am trying to say is that Randle has been focusing on rebounding and facilitating more. The reason I think he is trying to be impactful in other ways for this team is so that he can elevate the game of his teammates—that’s just my hunch. 

We could also discuss Randle’s inconsistency when it comes to being a physical force, such as him taking a fadeaway jump shot when he is eight feet away from the rim when he should just try to attack and draw contact and either finish or draw the foul and get some free shots from the charity stripe. But this has been an issue since he’s been in New York and something that can be corrected.  

Now, this is funny to say because it hasn’t been true in the past, but the Bucks could be a team where the Knicks could get back into their scoring flow. Currently, Milwaukee’s defensive rating is 119, which is ranked 29th in the league. 

Not having Jrue Holiday or Grayson Allen has impacted the Bucks’ defense. It’s still early, so the Bucks could turn it around later in the season. But right now, this game seems like a prime opportunity for New York, specifically Brunson and Randle, to get back on track. 

Knicks need more three-point shooting

The Knicks’ three-point percentage is 33.9, below the 35 percent league average. Last season, New York shot 35.7 from three, just slightly under the 36.1 league average. But the stress on needing to improve their three-point shooting is because the floor spacing has been an issue to start the season for New York. With the Knicks bricking away from the perimeter, it has limited Brunson, Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and, to some extent, RJ Barrett’s success in the paint. 

As we know, Brunson, Randle, Barrett, and Robinson are successful in operating inside the arc and finishing around the rim. However, for them to succeed, defenses must be kept honest protecting the perimeter, meaning the rest of the Knicks roster (including Brunson, Randle, and Barrett) need to hit their threes. 

Brunson and RJ have been the only players on this roster shooting above league average from three. Brunson’s average is 43.3 percent (6 attempts) per game, while RJ’s is 42.9 percent (5.3 attempts). As for the rest of the roster, here it is:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table (Generated 11/3/2023)

With the rest of the roster shooting this way, it’ll be difficult for the Knicks to find any sort of success. 

The funny thing is, the Knicks are back to their old ways of being top 10 in three-pointers attempted and top 15 again in three-pointers made. But efficiency will always be vital to keeping opponents honest. 

How will the Knicks’ bench match up with the Bucks’? 

This entire offseason and beginning of the season, the concern has been the height and wingspan of the New York Knicks, emphasized by the general fan concern of not having a true backup power forward. Well, tonight will be the ultimate test because both of the Bucks’ units have height and wingspan. However, specifically regarding the Knicks’ bench unit, they will be tested tonight.

The Knicks run a second unit of Quickley, DiVincenzo, Barrett, Hart, and Hartenstein. Outside of Hartenstein, everyone is 6’6” or shorter. As for the Bucks, they deploy non-starting-five units of either (1) Dame, Pat Connaughton, Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, and Brook Lopez, or (2) Cam Payne, MarJon Beauchamp, Connaughton, Bobby Portis, and Giannis. The first lineup is similar to the Knicks’ second unit, while the latter consists of the height and wingspan I noted. The expectation should be that the Bucks try to utilize their height advantage to try and expose the Knicks’ lack thereof or force the starters to play more minutes and expend more energy. 

And to make matters more intriguing, the Bucks’ second unit is having a solid start to the season as they rank 6th with a 63.8 offensive rating, while the Knicks bench is rated 23rd with a 60.1 defensive rating. For the Knicks’ second unit to have success, they’ll need their offensive firepower to be on point, which it has been because they have shooters and like to attack in transition—they have a 59.9 offensive rating, which ranks 9th amongst other benches in the league. 

The Bucks are a tough matchup. And for this to be the first game of the In-Season Tournament while the Knicks have struggled to find a rhythm, it will be an uphill battle. But let’s see if the Knicks are ready to compete with a team that is one of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference and make it to the NBA Finals. 

Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP’s interview with legendary Knicks sniper Steve Novak.