The New York Knicks and the Miami Heat are ready for battle. But what storylines will be highlighted in this series?
Today is the day the New York Knicks face the Miami Heat. If you’re a Knicks fan, then you know I don’t need to explain why we all see red when looking at this opponent (no, I am not talking about their team color).
The pain. The hatred. It’s all there.
So without further ado, let’s look at the five storylines for this series.
The status of Julius Randle’s health (again) and the importance of Obi Toppin
It’s upsetting that Randle’s health is a storyline yet again, especially when he appeared ready for a breakout performance in Game 5 against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Before the end of the first half, Randle’s stat line for the night was 13 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds. Now, he shot 44.4 percent from the field (4-9) while missing all his three-pointers. But because he was so aggressive in attacking the basket, he got to the free throw line and went 5-6.
If you didn’t watch the game and just looked at those numbers, you’re probably wondering, how was Randle poised to have a tremendous performance? Well, from tipoff, Julius allowed the game to come to him. He didn’t force shots; he took what the defense gave him and made the proper read. Whether that was finding Mitchell Robinson in the post for an easy dunk after a pump fake from three, drawing contact while attacking the rim and getting to the foul line, or driving into Mobley’s chest and finishing layups through contact.
Unfortunately, with 1:17 to go in the second quarter, Randle reaggravated his left ankle sprain after jumping to contest a Caris LeVert midrange jumper. On Randle’s downward trajectory, his left foot landed on LeVert’s foot, causing Julius’ foot to buckle.
Randle eventually returned to the court, but he was in street clothes.
As mentioned in the Knicks-Cavaliers storyline article, Randle’s health is essential because his physicality is instrumental to the brand of basketball the Knicks play. On top of that, he is a matchup nightmare. He is constantly commanding double teams, which helps the Knicks’ offense.
Now even though Randle walked off the court with a limp and appeared to be in excruciating pain, the fact that he was shooting around at practice and putting pressure on his ankle is a positive sign that he should return for this series. And to make matters more interesting, Julius is questionable for tomorrow—and so is Quentin Grimes (Editors note: Randle will not play in Game 1 and Grimes will come off the bench).
It would be shocking to see Randle suit up for Game 1 because the video of him attempting jump shots shows him with a slight limp after he lands and turns around. I understand that Randle has the questionable tag currently, but Grimes had the same label for Games 4 and 5 and still didn’t play. I expect this as more gamesmanship from Thibodeau to keep his opponents on their toes.
So if Randle doesn’t play game one, it is Obi Toppin Time yet again. And fans should be encouraged by Toppin’s playoff performance thus far.
Obi has been one of the more consistent players in his role. When he checks in, you know you’re getting high energy from him. Toppin hasn’t wavered, as we saw when he returned from injury during the regular season. Obi has stepped up, and that has been because he was able to get confidence at the end of the regular season when Randle got hurt.
Throughout the playoffs, Toppin has averaged 17.3 minutes, 8.2 points, 3.4 rebounds 1 assist, 1.2 steals, and .457/.353/1.00 splits. Now, Toppin’s numbers look suitable for the amount of time he plays, but how he’s getting those numbers has been impressive. On offense, Obi has attacked off the dribble, knocked down wide-open shots, hit his midrange jumpers, and attacked in transition (which he lacked throughout most of the season). On top of that, he’s played solid defense, whether poking entry passes loose or making his rotations.
I mean, we saw Obi play the entire fourth quarter in Game 4. If Thibs trusting Obi to close a game and leave Randle on the bench doesn’t tell you how well Toppin has played, then I don’t know what does.
New York will need Randle in this series, just like in round one. Even though Randle wasn’t playing his best, Cleveland still needed to game plan for him. But having Obi step up has been critical as well.
How the Knicks’ depth will prevail once again
In the first-round matchup between the Knicks and the Cavaliers, New York’s depth was critical to their success. As proven throughout that series, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen were unprepared for the strenuous workload to keep up with the Knicks’ fresh legs. And the expectation should be the same when facing the Miami Heat.
Miami is without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, who have logged the second and eighth most regular season minutes on the Heat’s roster, respectively. Herro logged 2,337 minutes, and Oladipo totaled 1,106. And to make matters spicier for the Heat, Bam Adebayo is nursing a hamstring injury that has required around-the-clock treatment (this explains why he doesn’t have the same pep in his step).
So with Miami missing their third-leading scorer, their defensive anchor nursing a nagging injury, and their roster lacking wing depth, they will need Jimmy to continue his hot streak (which is pretty unreasonable). To expect Butler to average 37.6 points, 6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals with a shooting split of .597/.444/.708 is unreasonable. Sure, his rebounding and assist numbers are around his season averages, and his free throw shooting has taken a dip, but the scoring rate is just absurd.
Butler had to score at least 30 points for Miami to win, even in the two games Miami won where Giannis only played 11 minutes or didn’t play at all. The one game that the Heat lost that series was when Butler scored 25 points with shooting splits of .667/.500/.700.
With all of that said, that is where the Knicks’ second unit will have success once again.
Now someone is thinking: How is that possible when the Heat bench has averaged 39 points per game (ranked second) during the playoffs to the Knicks’ 29 (ranked fourth)?
Well, the Heat’s life was easy, considering the Bucks didn’t play the same outstanding defense they did during the regular season. As a whole, Milwaukee had the fourth-best defensive rating (110.9), with their bench ranked ninth (54.6). During the playoffs, Milwaukee was 15th in defensive rating (119), and their second unit ranked 12th (49.3)—a drastic fall from the regular season.
On the flip side, New York’s bench has been able to score, considering they’re ranked fourth during the playoff while still facing a Cavaliers’ second unit that hoisted the best defensive rating in the playoffs (the Cavs’ entire team ranked fourth).
Numbers only tell so much of the story, but when watching both series, the Knicks-Cavaliers struggled to score points efficiently, while the Bucks-Heat series was a scoring free for all. The expectation should be that both teams return to the middle—The Knicks shoot better, and the Heat’s scorching hot shooting takes a dip.
The Knicks should have the upper hand here because the Knicks have the depth to score and keep Miami’s offense at bay.
The chess match between Tom Thibodeau and Erik Spoelstra
Both Tom Thibodeau and Erik Spoelstra coached circles around their first-round opponents. But now, it’s two chess grandmasters facing off in Central Park. The difference is that the crowd won’t be silent as each coach examines the board for their next move to keep their adversary on their toes.
Thibs was excellent with his adjustments against Cleveland:
- Thibs made sure to switch up lineups to throw off J.B. Bickerstaff on how to deploy his lineups
- He made sure his team forced Donovan Mitchell to be the primary ball-handler because Garland isn’t as comfortable getting into rhythm off-ball as he is on
- Thibodeau made sure to blitz Cleveland’s guards to force someone else to be a playmaker—he has switched up his defensive schemes in general
- Thibs also recognized to run with the hot hand when needed
There is more that Thibs did, but you get the point.
This will be the test of all tests, especially with in-game adjustments. Bickerstaff didn’t adjust during the game too much. For instance, he allowed Jarrett Allen to constantly play help defense instead of focusing on getting rebounds, which is partly the reason the Knicks dominated the boards (Mitchell Robinson is also built like that). But Spoelstra won’t just watch passively as his team struggles. He’ll communicate the adjustments as needed.
Thibs proved that he has some tricks up his sleeves. (Maybe that’s why he’s so rigid during the regular season. Perhaps, he doesn’t want anyone else to know what he has cooking). But this will be a massive challenge because Spoelstra has endless playoff experience. In Spo’s 14 years as head coach, he has been in 166 playoff games and has won 100, including this season. Furthermore, he is an NBA Champion and has taken lesser teams to the playoffs and NBA Finals.
This is no slight to Thibs, who has been a head coach for 11 years. But unlike Spo, Thibs has appeared in 66 playoff games and has won 29 (including this season). Nevertheless, there is endless respect for one another, and it’ll be interesting to see these two battle once again—the last time they coached against each other was in the Eastern Conference Semis in 2012-13, where the Heat won that series against the Chicago Bulls 4-1.
Immanuel Quickley needs to perform in this Knicks-Heat series
Immanuel Quickley has been underwhelming throughout the playoffs. During the regular season, Quickley averaged 14.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1 steal, and shooting splits of .448/.373/.819. Throughout the playoffs, IQ’s numbers have been 9 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 steals, and splits of .342/.286/.813. Outside of the free throw shooting, his other statistics have dropped drastically.
Maybe the Knicks-Cavs series was a challenge because of both teams’ defensive intensity, or possibly because Quickley was struggling to get into a rhythm (or all the above). Regardless, IQ needs to pick up his level of play for the Knicks to be successful in this series, especially with Randle injured again.
While Randle is still on the mend, the Knicks need to continue to channel that next man up mentality that we’ve seen them do this entire season. However, Quickley must be highlighted because he has been instrumental to the Knicks’ success this season.
Thankfully, the Knicks got stellar play from RJ Barrett, who I expect to continue to stay in a groove. But IQ needs to be that dynamic two-way player that can feast against starters and bench units because scoring has been difficult for this team in the postseason. Outside of Brunson, Barrett, and sometimes Hart, New York struggled to get points unless it was putbacks by Mitchell Robinson. Since the Heat are also a strong defensive team, the Knicks need to make them stay honest and not give them any opportunities to hone in on Brunson—that is where Quickley comes in.
Now, Quickley did have solid Game 3 and 5 performances. So there should be some optimism that he is figuring things out and about to get into a groove. Unfortunately, sometimes players are like an old jalopy. They’ll sputter as you press on the peddle after igniting the engine, but it’s full steam ahead once they get going.
Nevertheless, IQ must be consistent to give New York a good chance of advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Knicks and Heat Battle of the Bigs
How Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein battle against Bam Adebayo, Cody Zeller, and maybe Kevin Love will be fascinating. New York should be favored in this category because Bam is playing with a hamstring injury, and the other Miami Bigs are no match physically for Robinson and Hartenstein. But that doesn’t mean both of New York’s bigs should go into this matchup lightly. Instead, both need to continue demonstrating their dominance against Cleveland’s twin towers.
Mitch is coming off one of the best performances in his career ever (during the playoffs!). He posted a double-double—13 points and 18 rebounds (11 offensive). On top of that, he’s averaging 8 points, 9.8 rebounds (5.8 offensive), 2.2 blocks, and shooting 64.3 percent per game.
Throughout these playoffs, Mitch has been an interior force. If he can continue to provide the rim protection and alter shots at the elite level he has this postseason, it’ll be tough for a Miami team to score in the paint, especially since they cannot continue to shoot 45 percent from three.
And then, when New York deploys Hartenstein, who is also a solid offensive rebounder (and rebounder in general), he can pull opposing bigs outside of the paint. With I-Hart’s floater and ability to pass out of the high post, Miami’s paint protection will not be there to stop guys like Barrett, Josh Hart, and Quentin Grimes from cutting baseline.
Bonus: Will the Knicks’ RJ keep up his scoring against the Heat?
Some are probably thinking that I was going to leave this article without mentioning RJ Barrett. The answer is no, but I am not as concerned about him as I was towards the end of the season and the start of the playoffs.
In the past three games, Barrett has averaged 22 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and a shooting split of .558/.313/.684. Of course, I’d like to see the three-point shooting and free throw percentages be better, but RJ’s overall game looked fluid against a top defensive team that protects the paint well.
Barrett was able to attack when he wanted and get to his spots. In addition, he wasn’t forcing any shots. Instead, he quickly passed out to the perimeter or found his bigs.
If RJ could do all that against the Cavaliers (the best defensive team in the league) while an ankle injury hampered Julius, I have little concern for a banged-up Miami Heat team.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out this clip of Chris Herring, author of “Blood in the Garden,” talking about how Pat Riley betrayed the Knicks for the Heat in the 90s.
