A Tom Thibodeau “to-do” list for the ’22-23 New York Knicks season

After a disappointing season, New York Knicks fans have seemingly turned on Head Coach Tom Thibodeau. So how can he right the ship this year?

Carmelo Anthony and Frank Ntilikina. Add Tom Thibodeau’s name to the list of most polarizing Knicks since 2010. Of course, Thibodeau doesn’t pass, shoot, or rebound, yet his performance has been the subject of heated debate for most of last season and this summer.

Entering the 2020-21 season, despite Leon Rose’s “coaching search,” Thibs’ appointment as head coach was widely considered as a fait accompli. Leon was previously Thibodeau’s agent, and reports had surfaced early on that it was Thibodeau’s job to lose. But, putting aside the close ties between Rose and the former Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves head coach, Thibs appeals to a large section of New Yorkers for several reasons:

1. During the franchise’s last consistent stretch of success, he was an assistant coach under Jeff Van Gundy.
2. Thibs, for better or worse, possesses a cliched old-school approach to player development, minutes allocation, and competition.
3. For a society trying to find a more balanced mix between self-care/prioritizing mental health and working until your heart stops — sports fans, particularly in this market, appear to glorify the latter. And this is Thibs; what he has been, what he is, what he will be.

During a successful 2020-21 season, Thibs appeared to push all the right buttons – the Knicks were prepared every night, they played hard, and their defense was ranked top-five in the league. And while some of the criticisms that plagued Thibs in the past were still present during that season (he was overly reliant on players like Elfrid Payton and didn’t hold them accountable when their performance was subpar), winning was the ointment for those warts. However, after a disappointing 2021-22 season, the perception surrounding Thibs had changed — his laser focus and approach to player development were viewed as stubborn and outdated.

As a result, Thibodeau, the front office, and Julius Randle are entering a make-it or break-it year where failure could have lasting impacts on how this franchise looks going forward. How Thibs adjusts his rotations, offensive, and defensive schemes will significantly affect the Knicks’ win-loss record. Vegas currently has the Knicks’ over/under at 41.5. But the truth is that anything less than 45 wins or a top-8 seed, and heads will likely roll.

So let’s look at Thibs’ to-do list for the 2022-23 season.

Play the kids, or at least these kids

Tom Thibodeau plays young players. The idea that he doesn’t is not true. Nevertheless, that fallacy has clouded the discussion regarding his coaching effectiveness.

With less than a month left in the 2021-2022 season, I did a basketball reference deep dive into other teams and how often they played their young players. The results were interesting, to say the least:

A couple of things to note about this statistic:

1. If Cam Reddish doesn’t get hurt, this number might even be higher as Thibs, towards the end of the season, made a concerted effort to give the young guys even more minutes than they were already getting.
2. If I increased the age to “under 24”, this would include Obi Toppin, and the number would be higher.

Now, if I’m being fair, I believe that most people can understand that while Thibodeau plays young players, he doesn’t necessarily always trust them or provide them with crunch-time minutes. Now with that said, I do believe that Thibs needs to give more minutes to Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin – players that have proven they can contribute to winning basketball. Per NBAStats.com, both Quickley and Toppin posted some of the team’s best on-court +/- stats this past season. Furthermore, Toppin and Quickley scored most of their points during the 4th quarter, despite not having Thibs’ complete trust — a mistake that must change next season.

Hold Julius Randle accountable

I’m still a believer in Julius Randle. Players that average 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists (despite horrific shooting efficiency) don’t grow on trees. However, my biggest criticism of Thibs last season was that his supposed “everyone plays by the same rules” approach did not apply to the Knicks’ star player. In reality, I get it. Sports fans love the nostalgic myth of a Gregg Popovich-Tim Duncan partnership — where the star player does everything right, the coach can be tough on him, and as a result, everyone else has to fall in line. The fact is that this rarely happens – whether it be a school, hospital, or fortune 500 company. Favoritism is legit, and players or employees who create wins/revenue will likely have the rules bent for them.

But Randle went too far last season. Not only did he not play well, but his effort was called into question far too many times. You can’t try to spin bad on-court behavior (the thumbs down to fans, getting into it with teammates, etc.) as competitiveness for the sake of your star’s ego. Unfortunately, too many times we saw Randle act without consequence. This season, Thibodeau must make sure that Randle is exuding leadership, both on and off the court, if he’s going to continue playing 35 minutes a game.

Now, Randle recently spoke about his leadership and what he learned from last season:

At least for the time being, the idea of playing Randle less and Obi Toppin more doesn’t seem so far-fetched. SNY’s Ian Begley recently reported that members of the Knicks coaching staff think that Obi’s role could increase in 2022-23. Obi has earned these minutes, but I think Thibs needs to use this to put a fire back under Randle. The former All-NBA standout doesn’t need to return to All-Star form, but he can’t continue to look like a loose cannon without being held accountable.

Listen to the data

Another fair criticism of Thibodeau was that despite poor results, he trotted out the same lineup, night after night. While he does get credit for giving Quentin Grimes a more significant role at the beginning of last year and benching Kemba Walker when it was clear Walker and Randle could not co-exist, he also gave far too many minutes to Alec Burks at the point guard position. Also, he didn’t expand the roles of Toppin and Quickley until the latter part of the season.

This season, there have already been discussions about the fit of Randle, RJ Barrett, and newly signed point guard Jalen Brunson. Consistent and efficient shooting has never been in the cards for RJ or Randle, and both players, in addition to Brunson, like to drive to the hoop. Knowing that Randle is at his best when he is playing “fast” and “attacking the rim,” it will be interesting to see how Thibs balances the floor with his lineups considering the contrasting styles of some of the players.

Per Cleaning The Glass, Brunson demonstrated excellent efficiency in the half-court – producing within the 91st percentile in points per 100 plays. In contrast, when he played in transition and strictly played the point guard position, Brunson performed within the 65th percentile in points per 100 plays. Of course, this is just one piece of data, but it bears noting that two of the Knicks’ starting rotations play entirely different styles of basketball.

Does this mean Randle should run the break as the primary ball-handler when the team gets out in transition? Or does it mean that Randle should be more of a spot-up shooter in half-court sets? Realistically it’s too early to tell, but managing Randle’s and Brunson’s strengths and weaknesses while putting players around them who complement their strengths and potentially cover up their weaknesses will probably be paramount to this season.

Please make no mistake. For Thibs to do this, he must do something different and think differently. My two cents is that you can’t make it in this league if you don’t evolve, so I’m betting on Thibs. We heard plenty about his evolution post-Minnesota Timberwolves, and while there are still plenty of old Thibodeau — holding practices, specifically with the younger players on the team, shows that he’s committed to player development. Now he has to trust those players to show that the magic is in the work.

Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP’s interview with RJ Barrett!