The Knicks had an All-Star break hangover in Milwaukee, losing to the Bucks 101 to 134. New York started slowly before the second unit injected some life into the game.
However, that bit of energy was short-lived as the first half ended with New York trailing by 17 points. The Knicks took a beating inside, losing battles on the boards and giving up second-chance points. The game got even further out of reach in the second half, as the Bucks started a three-point barrage led by Bryn Forbes. The Bucks got revenge for losing the first meeting between the teams by a similarly massive margin.
It’s a foregone conclusion that most Knicks were bad in this game. Julius Randle might have had his worst game of the season, Elfrid Payton had a brutal night, and Nerlens Noel looked overwhelmed. That left room for some players to step up, as RJ Barrett continued his growth and Alec Burks snuck a gem into an otherwise ugly night. We’ll cross our fingers that this was a slump after a long break, but let’s see what trends in play to watch for as the Knicks face a tough upcoming schedule…
Just one Knicks starter manages a good game
Elfrid Payton: With the Bucks loading up inside on defense, Elfrid Payton seemed destined to struggle. He still found the paint with some frequency, but the traffic meant struggles at the rim and missed opportunities to pick-up assists. Payton missing his kick-out options became a bit of a theme on Knicks twitter as the game unfolded. The starting PG is great at getting into the teeth of the defense but takes himself too far into the lane for any options other than a shot attempt. To make matters worse, the Bucks left Payton open when he was off-ball. This meant that Payton’s struggles inside were compounded by missed three-pointers.
In his 24 minutes of action, Payton managed 10 points, 3 assists, and 5 rebounds. He shot 4/14 from the field, 1/4 from three, and 1/2 from the free-throw line. That’s a lot of shot attempts for his time out there and not nearly enough points. For comparison’s sake, IQ put up fewer shots in the same amount of time but dropped 5 more points. It’s the inefficiency that magnifies the moments where Payton chooses a floater instead of a kick-out.
Tom Thibodeau’s system requires his ball handlers to be a threat to get inside. Elfrid Payton has figured that much out. But Payton was Omar Epps to the Bucks LL in this one; he’d be surrounded in the lane with no options. Without an ability to make things happen inside, Payton was destined to fail here. I think his tunnel vision is about not seeing over defenders like the taller RJ and Julius Randle do. Either way, this game was a nightmare. Payton gets a 1 out of 5 for too many shots, too few assists, and not enough points.
Reggie Bullock: It’s telling that Reggie Bullock’s quiet night didn’t stand out even though the Knicks needed help. The Bucks knew to keep a body on New York’s 3 and D starter. The rest was history. Bullock still found himself a couple of three-pointers and dribbled past a few late closeouts, but he didn’t do much else. For better or worse, 3 and D is literally all you can expect from Bullock reliably.
Bullock ran for 21 minutes and put up 8 points and 1 board on 2/6 from three and 2/2 from the free-throw line. His only attempt inside the arc was a lay-up where he drew the foul call. Everything else came down to floating on the perimeter and launching when he had space. This makes it hard to rate the guy…he’s pretty reliable, but his value comes and goes depending on how the players around him perform.
There’s not a lot to say about Bullock. He’s the epitome of a role player, filling that role comfortably but virtually never leaving that comfort zone. Reggie took and made some threes; his defense was forgettable because the team didn’t defend well as a whole. That leaves the wing with a lackluster impact. Bullock gets a 1.5 of 5 on impact.
RJ Barrett: On the first play of the night, RJ Barrett knocked down a pull-up jumper at the elbow that looked smooth. It was the start of a strong performance amid the rest of his team’s struggles. Barrett would add his signature forays inside, mixing in a few nice passes to cutters along the way. He had a highlight-reel dunk and launched a pretty alley-oop to Nerlens Noel. But I think his jumper might be the biggest discussion piece of the night, even despite this absolute beauty of a drive…
RJ rocked 29 minutes and hit for 22 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 turnovers. He shot 9/15 from the field, 1/2 from three, and 3/4 from the line. He scored at all three levels, one of only two Knicks to produce consistently all night. If you can find the clips of RJ’s jumpers in this game, please check them out. I don’t know that he’s ever looked so natural with his shot. Whether he was stepping into a catch-and-shoot or pulling up off the dribble, just watch his feet work to create distance and square him up. It was a really promising sight.
On a night where I hated virtually everybody, RJ Barrett kept me sane. He was hope for the future all rolled up with some immediate impact and value. I still think that he has growth to go in expanding his vision on drives through the high screen, but I’m confident in the strides he’s making all over the floor. If Barrett can become a pull-up threat on every dribble drive, then turning the corner will be easier. That will let him survey the opposite side of the floor for open teammates or take it to the rack. RJ grabs a 3.5 out of 5 for his efficient impact.
Julius Randle: Being brilliant all season can make the bad games stick out like a sore thumb. That’s the case for Julius Randle, who had arguably his worst game of the season. Randle typically deals with a ton of attention, but he does most damage when he gets one-on-one opportunities. Against the Bucks, his isolation plays came against Giannis, which made them challenging possessions in their own right. We didn’t get that natural “I can score at will” offense out of Randle. The Greek Freak’s length took away midrange jumpers, and the Bucks interior defense shut down the lanes.
The difficult situation meant Randle’s 29 minutes were a nightmare, dropping 7 points, 8 boards, 6 assists to 5 turnovers, and 1 very nice block. He shot 3/12 from the field and 1/2 from three. When we see Julius without a free throw, that’s generally a bad sign. When all else fails, the big man can usually will himself to rim and manufacture points. Against the Bucks, forceful forays just meant turnovers.
I don’t think this was an All-Star Break hangover. Budenholzer and the Bucks schemed for the Knicks effectively. The box score hints at it with Randle’s low free throws and Payton’s 3-point attempts (and everyone else just being bad). The concern at this point will be if Randle’s bad nights start to become more frequent. The team falls apart without his production, and every defense knows where to focus at this point. Randle’s second half will be a true test. He gets a 1.5 out of 5 on the night.
Nerlens Noel: I generally harp on a lack of production with players like Reggie Bullock or Frank Ntilikina. The Knicks can’t afford to have their starting Center fit into that bucket of no productivity. Thus begins my recap of Nerlens Noel, who challenged shots but did nothing else, including rebound the ball. I can live with Brook Lopez getting a couple of three-pointers off; I can’t live with Lopez winning on the perimeter and also tipping in second-chance buckets inside. Noel didn’t score, didn’t rebound, and didn’t provide enough defense to make up for it.
In 22 minutes, Noel had just 2 points, 1 rebound, 2 blocks, and 1 turnover. I’m constantly singing the praises of Noel’s defense at the rim, but you’ve got to complete the play. That means challenging shots at the rim AND getting the defensive board after. It means boxing men out after shots go up. Noel was overpowered inside for boards or pulled out of position by his shot contests. He got no offense going because the lane was clogged. He had a bad game.
The Bucks and Brook Lopez specifically are tough match-ups for Noel. He’s a good defensive big whose weaknesses come from strength and mobility issues. Brook Lopez is built to take advantage of both those shortcomings. With the Bucks taking away interior scoring, Noel was left with very little help to offer on a tough night for everyone. The defensive C grabs an impact grade of 1.5 out of 5.
Knicks bench provides some bright-spots
Immanuel Quickley: In a rare occurrence, Immanuel Quickley’s numbers are better than his performance actually was. That’s a bit concerning because the numbers aren’t very good. IQ provided a legitimate first-half spark, knocking down a pair of three’s and opening the floor for everyone else. But we’re back to referencing the Bucks interior defense as Quickley was relegated to playing almost entirely on the perimeter. The rookie launched plenty of three-pointers but had little luck after his first couple of shots.
Quickley played for 24 minutes, managing 15 points, 1 rebound, and 1 turnover. He shot 3/10 from the field, 3/8 from three, and 6/9 from the free-throw line. Nothing says “not Quickley’s night” like missing 3 free throws. Speaking of free-throw shooting, IQ’s ability to get to the line is a true gift. But it’s also the only way he can score inside when his floater isn’t falling…and the floater hasn’t looked great since teams began adjusting to it early on. The rookie has some clever tricks to draw fouls, but he doesn’t finish inside with much creativity and isn’t creating for anyone else either. We know he can manipulate defenders, but that only takes effect when he’s scoring. Teach this kid to manipulate defenders in ways that open up his teammates, and the sky’s the limit…that’s easier said than done.
Dropping 15 points on 10 attempts is never a bad game. But running point without an assist in 24 minutes and shooting 30% from the field is also not a good game. IQ proved his scoring chops as usual but didn’t show anything else. The good news is that I think this is his floor. He’d be a scoring guard that defends for any team in the league right now. He has to add some more wrinkles to his game to grow. That means an actual lay-up package instead of just floaters. It means changing speeds to create passing lanes instead of just draw contact. Quickley can develop there, he’s a cerebral player, but he’s not there yet. He gets a 2 out of 5 on the night.
Alec Burks: Hidden in plain sight, Alec Burks was as good or better than RJ Barrett. Burks has started to more frequently find the types of performances he started the season with. The sixth man hit shots from long and mid-range. He finished a couple inside as well before setting things up for others with the attention he drew. What success the second unit found, Burks was the driving force for. He produced the entire time he was out there.
Burks finished 27 minutes with 17 points, 8 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1 turnover. He shot 7/12 from the field, 2/6 from three, and 1/1 from the line. He was the hot hand and the playmaker all at once. Even with the high assist total, I never felt much like Burks was the point guard. He was less a guiding force, imposing his will on the defense. The sixth man did much more of taking what the defense gave him. This shows that you can draw out a ton of production by making the right play even when others are struggling.
This is the Burks that I was hoping to get after the ankle injury. He’s a player that can give you offense no matter what the defense throws at him. We saw how effective that was in the first half when IQ provided just enough complimentary help for the second unit to stage a brief comeback. The problem last night was the Knicks didn’t have much else to help. If we get this Burks when Randle is going off, or when the lead guards are productive, the Knicks will compete with just about anyone. Burks and RJ just needed another scorer, and New York needed some stops. Burks gets a 3.5 out of 5.
Frank Ntilikina: Just notching the 15-minute mark, Frank Ntilikina was quiet outside of a couple of nice boards. For most of the night, Frank floated in and out of sight. His best play would have been a drive to draw free throws at the end of the first…but he missed both free throws. He had a couple of three-point opportunities but failed to cash them in. That left Ntilikina with an unproductive night on the score sheet.
For 15 minutes, Frank managed just 3 rebounds and a steal on 0/3 shooting, 0/2 from three, and 0/2 from the free-throw line. He managed to stand out defensively a couple of times, but with the Knicks defending poorly as a whole, the effort lost its impact. Frank did have some of those “little things” moments like a cut that created space for IQ’s first three-pointer, but we’re digging into subtleties because nothing stood out.
Consistency has always been the problem for Frank. Even now, we can call the kid young; but for years there have been flashes of true talent before stretches of absolute silence. Ntilikina had started to show some assertion and get into the lane prior to his injury early in the season. We got a very brief flash of that when Frank had no choice because the shot clock was running out. Without at least some effort to attack the paint, Ntilikina will float between a low-end role player and an end of the bench emergency defender. He HAS to add another piece to the equation. Frank gets a 1.5 out 5, avoiding the 1 because of some nice defensive moments on Jrue Holiday.
Obi Toppin: Maybe it was garbage time. Maybe he was out there long enough to get comfortable. But Obi Toppin closed the game by going at his defenders, which led to two baskets off goaltends. He added a three-pointer in that run, but his midrange jumper came earlier in the game. It’s always nice to see Obi can some jumpers, but the post-ups and shots in the lane made me even happier…that’s his game!
Toppin played 19 minutes and put up 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 turnovers. He shot 4/5 from the field, 1/1 from three, and 1/1 for free throws. The turnovers are there to remind you that he still looked very much like a rookie for most of the night. The lottery pick still looks skittish at times, too focused on sharing. He plays like he doesn’t want to make a mistake which causes him to make moves a second late even when he chooses the right approach. But the closing minutes, where he was comfortable and just playing his game…there was potential there!
It’s impossible to separate the production from the timing in which it came. Obi flashed some very nice things, but we need to see that during meaningful minutes rather than a 30-point blowout. For now, I like the signs we get whenever Toppin takes his game to the post. The roster isn’t designed to let Obi do that enough, and I think it drags down his value. Either way, he flashed his upside enough for 2 out of 5 on the night.
Taj Gibson: While he didn’t have a great game, Taj Gibson gave Knicks a much-needed boost. Nerlens Noel was having a bad game which made Gibson’s return to the rotation crucial. Taj took more minutes on the night because he provided more everywhere. He defended more effectively and blocked just as many shots. He scored on a nifty post move and even hit a three-pointer. Gibson had some fight in him that the rest of the team could have used.
26 minutes into his night, Taj ended with 7 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. He shot 3/6 from the field and 1/3 from three. It wasn’t too much to write about, a little of this and a little of that. I can instead focus on a nice moment of leadership. Late in the game, the Knicks gave up an open lane dunk that left Taj glaring at his teammates. It was a visible call-out with perfect timing. That sort of thing can be inappropriate in certain circumstances, but the kids needed to know that they’re expected to play for 48-minutes regardless of the score.
It could be a result of the comparison with Noel, but I really appreciated Gibson’s contributions. His statistics aren’t game-changing, but they show a player that did his job. This is coming off an injury and playing more minutes than his starting counterpart. Taj really does give the Knicks a reliable third big man; they need Mitch back for the rotation to be complete. Gibson grabs a 2 out of 5.
Knox and Pinson: These two youngsters got some garbage time minutes. They didn’t have enough time to do much, but I liked a drive from Kevin Knox that should have drawn free throws. Knox also hit a three, just to remind us that he’s got that part of the game down.
Outgunned but refusing to lose optimism
Tom Thibodeau: It’s hard to come down on Thibs too hard when his options are limited. I really feel like Derrick Rose was missed in this game. You could catch Elfrid Payton’s man cheating into the lane far too comfortably. At the same time, Payton is bearing the brunt of hate for a game where everybody was bad. Thibodeau couldn’t do much about Julius Randle or Nerlens Noel’s struggles. IQ was only nominally more effective than Payton. Coaching wasn’t really the problem in this one.
I look at the free-throw shooting and pray that this was just some rust after players got a much-needed break. Thibodeau runs his players hard, and I wouldn’t be shocked if everyone took the ASB as a chance to unwind and recover. Hopefully, this shook out the cobwebs. I can’t point to any crucial decisions. I don’t think there was a decision that changes this result meaningfully.
In the future, I’d still like to see Thibs more willfully mix it up. Burks and RJ Barrett don’t share the floor very often, and that held true even as they were the best two Knicks on the night. Other than that, the blemish could fall on preparation. The Bucks had a better gameplan, and Thibs didn’t have a counter-punch that worked. That leaves Thibodeau with a 1.5 out of 5 for getting blown out.
Closing Thoughts: Things could get worse before they get better. The Knicks have a really rough stretch of games to start a difficult second-half of the season. The postseason race is tight enough that a few bad streaks could reopen the doors to tankathon watchers. But let’s hold off on panicking. The Knicks have already overachieved in remarkable fashion, and one bad game shouldn’t turn us into cynics. The uphill battle to come isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about development, from skills to culture and everything in-between. The Knicks have already taken a step toward respectability league-wide. Now it’s a matter of finding out how close they truly are.
A bigger question that we’re closing in on is whether or not the Knicks should make a move. I’d argue that any decisions should come down to price. The Knicks don’t need to rush this. They have cap space, picks, and youth to boot. I’d love to see a starting wing brought in to draw some attention away from Randle and help out with the playmaking. I also wouldn’t give up meaningful draft picks to make that happen unless Zach Lavine was that player. Patience is a virtue. We learned that watching Julius Randle become an all-star. This overachieving roster has earned a bit of that love also.
So the uphill battle begins or continues, depending on how you view it. Either way, we’ve already seen more than enough to be excited about the future. How far Barrett, Quickley, and Toppin can climb is a fun question to explore. It’s never boring to spend Dolan’s money in free-agent scenarios. This season is a success just by changing the conversation from wondering how bad the Knicks are to visualizing how good they can be. Let’s enjoy that even when the tough games hit.
Stay tuned into knicksfantv.com for the latest Knicks news and rumors throughout the season and as the trade deadline approaches.
