The Knicks must make important offseason decisions to improve the team. Here are five questions they should ask themselves.
Two things are true about the 2022-23 New York Knicks: they had a great season and wasted a great opportunity.
To the Knicks fans who get a kick out of complaining about their favorite team, it’s worth remembering that the Knicks just made it the furthest they have been in the playoffs since 2013. They upped last year’s regular season win total by 10. The front office has made solid moves. The scouts can find good value late in drafts. And the young core’s still young. So quit the whining.
But on the other hand, there may never again be a year in which the conference’s best player and best team get eliminated in the first round while New York’s conference semifinals opponent loses their second/third best scorer (Tyler Herro), practically red-carpeting a path to a round the franchise hadn’t competed in since 2000, before I was born (no, I’m not a youngin’, you’re just old).
The KFTV co-hosts, among other media sites, have analyzed the Knicks-Heat series until their eyes and teeth fell out. TLDR: Everyone not named Brunson missed too many shots, Tom Thibodeau was outcoached, and Miami simply “wanted it more,” to quote the great basketball philosopher, Julius Randle.
We should be proud of the team’s 82-game performance and dominance over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. But the hope they produced in the city has accelerated the timeline and heightened expectations. In the East’s hierarchy, New York still ranks fifth behind Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston, and, at this point, Miami. Nevertheless, New York should aim for a top-three spot next season because they have a treasure chest of assets to fill the holes in the roster.
This offseason will be important if they seek to build off 2023 and ascend into contendership. Here are five questions New York must answer by the start of training camp…
One: Is it time for some coaching changes?
The wave of coach firings must have missed Tom Thibodeau, who is still watching from the safety of a Cancún seashore. Of course, it’s not too late to fire Thibs—Dolan could make a call from the MSG heavens at any moment—but it’s safe to say that the head coach will return for the 2023-24 season.
A new voice sometimes helps, but continuity is also important, as I’m sure the head coach-less teams around the league will learn soon. You don’t fire the guy that helped establish a culture with an expectation of winning, not to mention the December 4th rotation change that saved the Knicks’ season. You don’t fire him unless he completely underachieves.
Thibs was close, though, and if Erik Spoelstra’s name was Joe Schmoe, he might be out of here already. Over doubling Jimmy Butler, enabling opponent shooters, and playing offense-impaired lineups almost cost him his job, but the players deserve a lot of the blame, too.
Still, the Knicks have averaged 22.1 assists per game since Thibs became head coach in 2020. For one reason or another, ball movement fails to last long stretches. The read-and-react offense is often bland and uncreative. Relying on high-post backdowns and tough jumpers from Brunson and Randle won’t cut it during money time, as we saw. If they keep Thibs, the Knicks should explore adding a high-level offensive mind to their bench to diversify their sets and create easier looks.
Will the Knicks regret not taking advantage of the fact that Monty Williams, Nick Nurse, Doc Rivers, and Mike Budenholzer are all available? Only time will tell.
Jalen’s prediction: Thibs’ job is safe, but he’ll kick rocks if he makes too many questionable decisions again in 2024.
Two: How much will the supporting cast cost?
Josh Hart is a free agent. Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin are eligible for extensions. Two of those three will probably get a Gmail Calendar invite to a negotiation meeting. Maybe Toppin, a CAA client, will too, but that doesn’t mean his future on the team is safe.
Playoff shooting woes and referee beefs aside; Hart has been a valuable part of this Knicks team for his defense, rebounding, tenacity, and timely shot-making. Immanuel Quickley was the runner-up for Sixth Man of the Year, and we’ve spent all year waxing poetic on his play both off the bench and as a makeshift starting point guard.
But with the new CBA salary cap rules, which put limits on teams’ spending and trade capabilities depending on their luxury tax apron, it’s essential for the front office to balance the checkbooks well so they can maintain flexibility in acquiring talent moving forward. As a fan of the players, I want them to get paid. As a fan of the team, I’m hoping they don’t overpay.
Jalen’s prediction: Hart for $18 million a year, Quickley for $21 million, Toppin is not extended this offseason
Three: How will they address the roster’s issues?
With a collective 29.2 percent figure from three in the playoffs, it’s surprising that the Knicks won a game, let alone a series. That speaks to the magic of Jalen Brunson’s play and the Knicks’ aggression in the paint, but it also signifies a glaring issue. Reliable shooters like Brunson, Grimes, Quickley, and Randle were all ice-cold from distance. The non-shooters remained just that. Something has to change next year.
General shot-making is also a necessity. The second unit could use a flamethrower who can get a good shot off when the offense becomes stagnant. Quentin Grimes or Immanuel Quickley could take another leap. RJ Barrett may add a mid-range jumper or post and face-up footwork to his game. This is all hard to count on, though, so the front office should look at some options out there.
The Knicks would also benefit from more lineup versatility. Having interior centers on the floor for 48 minutes a night might be its own ailment it tries to remedy. Smart teams pack the paint when the ‘Mid Three’ attacks. Mitchell Robinson has trouble catching dump-offs. Isaiah Hartenstein isn’t the stretch big they thought he’d be. Thibs won’t trust a Toppin/Randle frontcourt. But maybe there’s a player out there he’d trust more in that role who could also be an offensive threat. (Don’t forget they signed Isaiah Roby!).
Through trade or free agency, the Knicks should identify potential targets to help fill needs while adding to their identity as a gritty team of underdogs.
Jalen’s targets: OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Kyle Kuzma, Alec Burks, Harrison Barnes, Jordan Clarkson, PJ Washington, Trey Lyles, Kenrich Williams
Four: Is it time to go stargazing?
I’ve buried the lead a little bit. But you knew this question was coming.
Brunson is the best Knicks signing in a while. Randle, for all its worth, was pretty great, too. But the Knicks need a new best player, or at least someone who elevates their game in the playoffs.
Every offseason, a star-level player becomes available, and the trade machines start churning. The Knicks are fully equipped to take advantage of the opportunity with the aforementioned young talent, their own first-round picks, and a smattering of other protected future firsts and seconds from various teams.
The answer to this question depends on what, or who, is on the market. Of course, we can fantasize about superstars like Embiid announcing that he wants out. Still, until he does, the media will connect imaginary dots between New York and whoever seems to be the best player available. And right now, that might be Karl-Anthony Towns (hard pass).
Who should the Knicks keep their eye on? That’s a loaded question that I or another KFTV staff writer will tackle later. All I can do right now is list some names I believe to be intriguing options, then run away before the tomatoes start flying on stage.
Jalen’s big-name targets: Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Paul George, Jaylen Brown, Zach LaVine
Five: How much longer will the Randle/Barrett tandem continue?
Julius Randle made his second All-NBA team before putting up another postseason stinker. RJ Barrett is 22, and he pushed New York through offensive lulls in both playoff series before putting up a stinker in Game 6 against the Heat. Both players will want the ball to redeem themselves next year.
Randle and Barrett had a -2.3 net rating when on the court together during the regular season. That is the worst mark for any of the team’s 20 most frequent two-man combinations (per NBA). With the eye test, it’s clear that both are rhythm players who shrink as spot-up shooters when the other wants to make a move; neither are great shooters. And both are culprits in the Knicks’ crimes against ball movement.
Randle’s horrid 2023 playoff performance has already made fans eager to exile him for nothing, but players who average 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists are hard to find. He’s more talented than Barrett, without question. So moving on from him for a collection of role players is a backward, rebuilding move in theory. And yet trading him for a superstar might be tricky given his career playoff shooting splits are .344/.283/.756 (in 15 games). That is not a typo.
Barrett might attract teams looking to sell and rebuild. He’s still developing a feel for the game, a jump shot, and good decision-making habits. From Game 3 against Cleveland on, he averaged 21.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on .468/.358/.750 splits. Teams could view that as a sign of growth and a prelude to a strong Year 5. Will the Knicks regret missing out on that growth by trading him away?
If another co-star is coming to New York, it’s hard to see either Barrett or Randle being a fourth option. One of them probably has to go. Body language interpreters have their preference. Post-conference watchers are on the same page. NBA analysts recognize who has more pure talent, and tween-tween lovers will agree with them. It’s a tough decision.
Jalen is: Team Barrett (though he would quietly explore trade options for both)
Conclusion
Jalen Brunson is currently the 46th highest-paid player in the league, per ESPN. He’ll be cheaper next season and even cheaper the following year. The same goes for Mitchell Robinson. Isaiah Hartenstein will make less than $10 million next season. The young players all seem like gym rats who take advantage of the offseason.
The Knicks are in a very good spot. However, Leon Rose has some work to do. And so do we as rumor aggregators. So if you’re hopping on the bandwagon now, buckle up for the ride.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP The Fanchise discussing the Knicks’ biggest offseason needs on SNY’s “The Putback” with Ian Begley.
